Democracy For Nepal: What Will The Constituent Assembly Look Like?

Monday, June 25, 2007

What Will The Constituent Assembly Look Like?

Nepali Congress 12% 12/60*100*5 = 100 seats out of 500
UML 11% 11/60*100*5 = 92 seats out of 500
Maoists 10% 10/60*100*5 = 83 seats out of 500
RPP, RJP, RPP (K) 5% 5/60*100*5 = 42 seats out of 500
Other Left Parties 5% 5/60*100*5 = 42 seats out of 500
Sadbhavana (Anandi) 7% 7/60*100*5 = 58 seats out of 500
MJF 7% 7/60*100*5 = 58 seats out of 500
Others 2% 2/60*100*5 = 17 seats out of 500
Total 60% votes cast

Left Parties 92 + 83 + 42 = 217 out of 500
Non Left Parties 100 + 42 + 58 + 58 + 17 = 275 out of 500

Some predictions.

(1) The country will be declared a republic on day one.
(2) Federalism is guaranteed, although the shape of that federalism is far from certain. Most of the friction in the assembly will be on this topic.
(3) If Girija stays healthy and he stays president of the unified Congress, he will likely become the first president of Nepal.
(4) It is also possible Madhav Nepal will manage to get some non-Left parties to join him. In that case, he gets to be Nepal's first president. The Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF would be prime candidates for such a move on the part of Nepal.
(5) The Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF will emerge the kingmakers in the assembly. It is very possible they will go with the Left Front.

Some suggestions.

(1) If the UML and the Maoists were to become one party, they will easily emerge the largest paty in the country. But their unification is unlikely.
(2) There is a clear case to be made for a unification of the Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF. But that also is nowhere close to gelling.