Compulsions Of A Transition

Do I believe the Maoists want a one party communist dictatorship? No.

Do I believe the Maoists want to emerge as the majority party in the constituent assembly? Yes. Do I believe that will happen? No. It will be a hung assembly.

Do I believe the Maoists will emerge the largest party in a hung assembly? Maybe. I don't know. I don't know which will emerge the largest party. It might end up being that no party has more than 25% strength in the assembly. The Congress might not unify, and even a unified Congress at best can hope to emerge the largest party. That too I doubt because they are not taking the lead on any of the burning issues of the day: republic, federalism, land reform. The UML could do really well. The MJF could sweep the Madhesh.

Do I believe the Left Front will come to power through the constituent assembly? That is very possible. Between them, the UML and the Maoists might end up having the numbers.

A hung assembly is pretty much guaranteed. And it does not really matter as to which party will emerge the largest, since the second and the third largest parties will also be pretty big.

Is the Youth Communist League being demonized? That is possible. The Madhesi Movement got demonized big time because it challenged the status quo. The Maoists also challenge the status quo. And so it is possible the Maoists are also getting demonized to an extent.

But the excesses of the YCL are well documented. Those muscle power ways have to come to a complete halt. Otherwise the UML is not going to want to ally with the Maoists. And that alliance might be the best hope for legitimate land reform.

The YCL is in a transition mode. These were militia. Many were PLA. They have shifted from gun power to muscle power, and that too is sporadic. Mostly they are a political organization with a few flash points of roughening people up. They have to go one step further. They have to become a total, peaceful, political organization that does not carry out any of the functions of a state.

If there is going to emerge a Left Front in the assembly, the best hope for the Nepali Congress is to unify the two Congress factions and forge an alliance with the other non-Left parties like the Sadbhavana and the MJF. The primary base of the Congress has been in the Madhesh. It has been amazing to me as to why that party has not tried to take the lead on the Madhesi aspirations. Instead it has clamped down. And so, if you ask me at this point, I am saying the Left Front will secure a majority in the assembly. The Congress has been acting like a spent force.

The MJF could very well emerge the largest party of the future Madhesh state, kind of like one of those many regional parties in India. And I don't see the MJF and the Sadbhavana unifying. And that is okay.

The goal at hand is free, fair, fearless elections. But already foul play is underway. They put 48% of the constituencies in the Terai, but then proceeded to engage in some major gerrymandering. All Madhesi MPs of all parties suddenly find they might not even get elected. They have caused some major disfiguration to Hridayesh Tripathy's constituency.

And so the Madhesi Movement has to move ahead now with the demand for completely proportional elections to the constituent assembly.

The goal is to end up a federal republic of state funded parties, the number one democracy on the planet.

In The News

Eight parties should first decide on republic: Prachanda NepalNews informal deliberations on how to move ahead by abolishing monarchy are underway....... the Maoist leadership was trying to check the unruly activities of the YCL. He informed Situala that he had already issued a tough circular to the YCL ranks directing them not to engage in violent activities.
Professionals demand immediate announcement of polls date
Conflict causes loss of Rs 5 billion
YCL's activities flouting peace pact, says NHRC
Mahara not happy with violent activities in the name of YCL
Prachanda regrets Dang incident

YCL violence against party policy: Mahara Kantipur
YCL ransack farmers' cooperative in Bardiya
Without timely CA elections country could loose its way: PM Koirala The PM also held separate meetings with Bam Morcha Nepal’s CP Mainali and Nepal Sadbhawana Party (Anandidevi)’s Rajendra Mahato.
YCL kill elderly in Sankhwasabha
Petroleum crisis deepens
Petro prices not increasing any time soon: Minister Mahato
'CA polls essential to secure rights of marginalized groups'
द्वन्द्वमा पाँच अर्ब क्षति
रोस्ट्रम नघेर्न एमालेको हि्वप
कांग्रेसले हिंड्नै पर्ने बाटो सात सालदेखि आजसम्म नेपालको राजनीतिमा जुनसुकै भूमिकामा रहे पनि कांग्रेसले नेतृत्व गर्दै आएको छ । यस अवधि -२००७-६२)को अधिकांश समय र प्रयत्न हामीले नेपालको शाह राजतन्त्रलाई संवैधानिक बनाउन सकिन्छ भनेर खर्च गर्‍यौं । लोकतन्त्र र राजसंस्थालाई सँगै हिंडाउन कोसिस गर्‍यौं । कांग्रेसले यस निम्ति गरेका बारम्बार -२००७, २०१५, २०३६, २०४७ र २०५८ पछि)का सम्पूर्ण प्रयत्न निष्फल भए । आफैले पुनःस्थापित गरेको शाह राजवंशका चार राजाहरूसँग निरन्तर संघर्ष गर्नुपर्‍यो । आफ्ना यही ऐतिहासिक प्रयत्न र भूल समीक्षा गर्दै कांग्रेसको एघारौं महाधिवेशन -२०६२, काठमाडौं)ले पचपन्न वर्षदेखि आफ्नो विधानमा कायम रहँदै आएको संवैधानिक राजसंस्थासम्बन्धी आफ्नो प्रमुख नीतिगत उद्देश्यलाई हटाउने निष्कर्षमा पुगेको हो । ......... सिंविधानसभा निर्वाचनका लागि निम्नलिखित विषयसमेत स्पष्ट हुने गरी घोषणापत्र मसौदा तयार गर्न र विशेष महाधिवेशनमा प्रस्तुत गर्न मसौदा समिति बनाउने ः.......... गणराज्य -संघात्मक एवं लोकतान्त्रिक) नेपालको आधारभूत स्वरूप र ढाँचा ......... राष्ट्र प्रमुख र सरकार प्रमुखको निर्वाचन प्रक्रियासहित शासन पद्धतिको खाका ..... सहभागितामूलक समानुपातिक व्यवस्थापिकाका लागि निर्वाचन प्रणालीको स्वरूप.......न्यायालय, अन्य संवैधानिक निकाय, सेना र प्रहरीको पुनःसंरचनासम्बन्धी प्रमुख अवधारणा........राजनीतिक दललाई आन्तरिक लोकतन्त्रसहित पारदर्शी बनाउने ठोस प्रस्ताव र प्रतिबद्धता....... सिंविधानसभा निर्वाचन सम्पन्न नहुँदासम्म केन्द्रीय सदस्यहरूलाई निश्चित जिल्लाहरूको राजनीतिक जिम्मेवारीका साथ सोही क्षेत्रमा बस्ने गरी खटाउने....... मिाओवादीलाई बृहत् शान्ति संझौता र अन्य समझदारी पूर्णपालना गर्न र सरकारलाई समेत आफ्ना तर्फबाट भएका प्रतिबद्धता पूरा गर्न कार्यमूलक ढंगबाट जोड दिने ।...... मिाओवादीसमेत अन्तरिम सरकारमा सामेल भइसकेको परिस्थितिमा पार्टीहरूबीचको एकता र सहकार्यका आधार एवं कार्यविधिलाई नयाँ ढंगले व्यवस्थित गर्न कांग्रेसले अग्रसरता लिने

Indigenous organisations announce fresh agitation NepalNews The Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NFIN), Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities Students, Indigenous Nationalities Joint Struggle Committee, Nationalities Indigenous Nationalities Women Federation and Nepal Indigenous Nationalities Youth Association have joined hands to announce the programmes of agitation including nationwide Nepal bandh on June 1, 10 and 11. ...... Major demands of indigenous community include federal restructuring of the state based on ethnic lines equipped with right to self determination and proportional representation based election system, among others.
Bardiya administration acts tough with Maoists
PM stresses CA polls in his talks with small party leaders
No one's right will be established without CA: PM
Mahara not happy with violent activities in the name of YCL
JMCC meeting inconclusive
Prachanda regrets Dang incident
Bandhs, demonstrations make life harder in terai
“NC Will Contest Elections On The Basis Of Moderate Ideology Propounded By B.P. Koirala”
US Hard Stance On the Maoists
UML chief directs his MPs to allow House to run
Poudel meets with MJF chief Ram Chandra Poudel held a secret parley with Upendra Yadav ..... Poudel flew to Birgunj on Wednesday morning and held talks with Yadav in Sripur area of Birgunj