Democracy For Nepal: Mainstreaming The Maoists: Various Scenarios

Monday, March 19, 2007

Mainstreaming The Maoists: Various Scenarios

Mainstreaming The Maoists: Various Scenarios

Scenario 1: The Maoists Become A Political Party
- Scenario 1.1: The Maoist soldiers and arms are all in cantonments. The Maoist militia also disarm. They get out of "law enforcement" work completely. The state police are the only that do it. There are no extortions, no abductions. Maybe there are a few, but they are not party sanctioned. And when they do happen, the state police has the option to go after them without fear the Maoist party might get offended.
  - Scenario 1.1.1: The eight party government makes peace with the Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit Movement. Their three demands are met: (1) The Home Minister resigns, (2) A probe commission is formed, (3) Decision is made to hold completely proportional elections to the constituent assembly. Krishna Sitaula become Defense Minister in the interim eight party government. The probe commission issues a report in August, two months after the elections. There is nothing new in there that was not already publicly known, and noone gets punished. Holding proportional elections also makes it possible to hold the elections on time in June because it is less complicated. The EC says so. The interim parliament passes a law that makes all political parties make public their book keeping. The Maoists show up as the richest party. Elections are held in June. Elections are free and fair. No party gets a majority. The two Congress factions have become one. Girija has retired. He did not contest. After the election, all communist parties in the country start work to become one. The Sadbhavana is adopted by the Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit groups. The country is declared a republic during the first session of the constituent assembly. All political parties are now state funded. Work begins on integrating and downsizing the two armies to make it 30,000 strong and it is made to "look" like Nepal in terms of its ethnic and gender composition. There are competing maps on federalism. But a final map is agreed on based on debate, dialogue and voting. The Maoists in India switch their goal. They now envision an India that is a multi-party democracy of state funded parties like Nepal. They cease violence and take to electoral, non-violent methods. An all party meeting in India decides to accede to the Maoist demand and turns India into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. Subsequently efforts are underway to unite all communist parties in India. China comes under pressure to become a federal, multi-party democracy of state funded parties. That makes the Tibetan diaspora go party.
    - Scenario 1.1.1.1: The country becomes the number one democracy on the planet. Country after country imports the April Revolution, from Pakistan, to Burma to Zimbabwe. Dictators get toppled left and right. By 2020, every country on the planet is a democracy. The April Revolution has been the model to emulate. The country sees double digit economic growth for 30 years and counting. Poverty becomes a thing of the past by 2015. Nepal has become the Kuwait of hydropower by then.
- Scenario 1.2: 30,000 Maoist soldiers and 3,000 Maoist arms are in cantonments. But the 100,000 Maoist militia still roams the country. They carry light arms. They "help" with law enforcement work. They maintain the climate of fear in the country.
  - Scenario 1.2.1: The Maoists refuse to fully become a political party. They want to continue with their militia. The eight parties do not give an inch to the Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit Movement. The anarchy, lawlessness, climate of fear in the country gets worse. There is major political paralysis. Elections are postponed to November. That encourages leftover royalists to try and fish in the muddy waters. The eight parties blame each other for not being able to hold elections. And they blame the Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit Movement. Eight party unity is substantially weakened. Hundreds of Maoists have defected the party and have taken their weapons with them. They are engaged in criminal activities of easy money. Non Maoist warlords emerge across the country to counter these groups. Some are ethnic splinter groups. There is fear elections might not be held in November either.
    - Scenario 1.2.1.1: Girija passes away some time between June and November. Krishna Sitaula claims he is the natural heir. Deuba claims he has been the longest serving Prime Minister among the second generation Congress leaders. Madhav Nepal claims the UML has grown much since 1999, and besides, is it not only fair to switch? It used to be the Congress, and now it should be the UML. The Maoists will not have any of this. Their claim is Girija represented the seven party alliance. Now it is the turn of the Maoists to take the top job. Who better qualified than Prachanda? The Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit Movement is the fourth contestant. The tussle for power spills over from the corridors of power out into the streets. Minor and major scuffles are reported all over the country for weeks. The Maoist soldiers threaten to come out of the cantonments, fully armed. Some Nepal Army generals issue statements saying they owe it to the country to make sure Nepal does not become a Bangladesh.
      - Scenario 1.2.1.1.1: The Maoists agree to Krishna Sitaula as the consensus candidate because they like his appeasing ways. That adds fury to the fire of the Madhesi-Janajati-Dalit Movement. Krishna Sitaula resigns after two weeks of violent protests across the Terai. Much political instability follows. The country gets a new Prime Minister every three months. Elections keep getting postponed. Lawlessness continues across the country. The king gives another speech.
Scenario 2: The Maoists Do Not Become A Political Party
- Scenario 2.1: The Maoists retain their militia. And they intend to rig the elections. They manage to become the largest though not the majority party. All the other parties gang up on them in the assembly. That complicates the process of integrating the two armies. There are major delays. The Maoists were hoping to become the ruling party and organize fresh elections as soon as possible so as to become the majority party by any means possible.
- Scenario 2.2: The Maoists go back to their old ways. Their soldiers come out of the cantonments. Their MPs in the assembly claim they have managed to "expose" the hypocricy of elections and parliamentary debates, and they leave. This act adds fuel to the Maoist fury in India where the insurgency hits an all time high.
  - Scenario 2.2.1: The US and India throw their weight behind the parliamentary parties in Nepal. There is preparation for war.
    - Scenario 2.2.1.1: A vicious civil war ensues that lasts two years. Neither side wins. Finally peace talks are held. This time the Maoists agree to completely disarm. Both armies are abolished. New generation leadership emerges in all parties.
- Scenario 2.3: Prachanda is captured like Gonzalo. The Maoist insurgency goes away like magic. There still are leftovers here and there, but there is nothing significant. The country grows a new leaf in its history. There is no outstanding progress, but there is no war either. The country gets itself a mediocre Prime Minister and hums along.