Sunday, March 04, 2007

Madhesi Janajati Kranti: A Few Scenarios


Scenario 1: Victory

The country is completely paralyzed until the eight party government accedes to the basic demands of the Madhesi Janajati Kranti.

What are those basic demands? (1) The Home Minister resign. (2) Form a commission to investigate the atrocities during the Madhesi Movement. (3) Declare martyrs all those who died during the Madhesi Movement. (4) Hold proportional elections to all seats in the constituent assembly.

Those are some of the key demands. It is possible those demands are met, and elections are still held in June. If the eight party government does not budge, and the country goes on paralyzed for a few weeks, that will give rise to an altogether new equation. A new interim parliament and interim government will have to be formed. A new interim constitution will have to be written. Elections will get pushed perhaps to November.

Scenario 2: Stalemate

This is if the protest programs are not intense enough, if the country is partly paralyzed and partly hohum during the protests, if the vision is not clear enough, if there is not basic coordinaiton between the two movements.

The government could succeed in demonizing the movements, and make it look like these are not Madhesi Janajati Movements but something else.

This is a scenario where elections are not held in June, but the movement demands are not met either. The law and order situation in the country further deteriorates. The extreme left and the extreme right become more visible. The government at the center has further weakened itself with its obstinacy. Girija's health is failing further, but he is hanging on. The eight party unity is at an all time low. The Madhesi Janajati Movement shows no signs of launching its own political party. They continue with protest politics with no plans for power politics.

Scenario 3: Defeat

Protest programs do not materialize. Vision gets fuzzy. There is little if any coordination between the Madhesi and the Janajati movements.

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In The News

UML for impeachment proposal against king Kantipur The proposal says that the impeachment proposal could be tabled by a one-third majority against the king if the monarch makes any anti-Interim Constitution moves, adding that the monarchy could be abolished if a two-third majority passes the bill. .... CPN-Maoist today strongly criticized the UML's step saying that the party's (UML's) move was in favour of the "ceremonial monarchy."
Tourist arrival increases by 63 percent
PM directs Sitaula to lay grounds for CA polls Koirala was absent on the first two days of the meeting due to health reasons...... party members heavily criticised Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula over the “weak” security situation in the country. .... the NC leaders had also expressed the view that there could not be two parallel security systems in one country.
The third day of NC-CWC meeting underway
Strikes dampen Holi spirits in Terai in Nawalparasi, single women took a stand against the existing norm that forbids widows from using red coloured materials by celebrating Holi and dousing one another in red coloured water.
Armed Maoists injure four in Udaypur
Iran requests for observer status in SAARC
Eye for an eye, strike for a strike: transport workers no vehicles are seen in the East-west highway, and Koshi highway.
Martin lauds Chinese role for Nepal peace
Entrepreneurs to defy bandas Ayub Hussain, Sunsari leader of Nepal Trade Union Congress (NTUC) told ekantipur that the trade unions took the decision because of the practice of political parties and interest groups to call bandas frequently without caring about the suffering of workers employed in transportation, business and industrial sectors. ..... A 13-member committee comprising representatives from five trade unions, was formed to implement the decision. The meeting held under the initiation of NTUC was participated in by G-FONT, D-CONT, All Nepal Trade Union (affiliated to People's Front Nepal) and Maoist affiliated All Nepal Trade Union Federation.
Maoists must change ways before joining new govt: NC The party also said that it was concerned by the Maoists not returning public property seized during the conflict. ..... the party suggested the government not to include the Maoists in the interim administration unless the latter "changed their ways." ..... The NC members also took the government to task for not being able to maintain law and order in the country
सबैखाले बन्द अवज्ञा गर्ने निर्ण्र्ाा कांग्रेस, एमाले, जनमोर्चा, माओवादीलगायतका दलनिकट ट्रेड युनियनको शनिबार यहा“ बसेको बैठकले जुनसुकै पक्षले बन्द गरे पनि सामूहिक अवज्ञा गरिने निर्ण्र्ाागरेका हुन् । ..... फोरमको दर्ुइ महिनायता लगातारको बन्दले सुनसरी र मोरङका ५ सयभन्दा बढी ठूला उद्योग बन्द छन् । 'यो महत्त्वपर्ूण्ा निर्ण्र्ााहो र यसलाई कार्यान्वयन गर्न सशक्त ढंगले अघि बढ्छौं,' हुसेनले भने ।
सन्तुष्ट हुने आधार छैन'
ँसमस्या समाधान नभए सशस्त्र आन्दोलन’ तर्राईमा सशस्त्र आन्दोलन गरिरहेको जनतान्त्रिक तर्राई मुक्ति मोर्चाको वार्ता टोलीले फागुन २३ गतेसम्म पनि सरकारले वार्ताको वातावरण नबनाए २४ बाट फेरि सशस्त्र जनव्रि्रोहमा र्फकने चेतावनी दिएको छ । .... सरकारले टेबलमा बस्नुपर्ूव युद्धविराम नगरेको, मोर्चाका सदस्यको मुद्दा फिर्ता नलिएको र हत्याबारे छानबिन गर्न प्रयास नगरेको आरोप लगाउ“दै सिंहले टेबलमा बस्नुपर्ूव मधेस आन्दोलनका क्रममा मारिएकालाई सहिद घोषणालगायतका माग पूरा नगरेसम्म वार्ता हुन नसक्ने उल्लेख गरे । मोर्चाले यस आसयको पत्र सरकारलाई 'दूत' मार्फ बुझाइसकेको छ । ..... सिंहले भने- 'तर्राईका समस्या उठान भएका सबै समूहको बन्द र हड्तालप्रति हाम्रो पर्ूण्ा र्समर्थन छ ।'
माओवादीमा सुधार
आत्मनिर्ण्र्ााो अधिकारको औचित्य
नया“ नेपालको आर्थिक एजेन्डा मधेसमा बलेको यो आगो अन्य क्षेत्रमा विस्तारित भएर जाने सम्भावना टड्कारो

Maoist, NC leaders slam UML for registering separate statute amendment proposal NepalNews
Parties intensify intra-party debate on interim govt; UML for 8-party meet
Transport strike hits normal life in Terai; flights affected
Fine-tune the Peace Process A UN report mentions that ill-timed or poorly-designed elections in volatile situations can be dangerous because they can exacerbate the already volatile political situation by encouraging patterns of voting that reflect wartime allegiances. ....... little progress in electoral preparation, the ongoing unrest in Terai and other parts of the country, and the continued prevalence of widespread insecurity ........ Nepal’s major political parties have failed to formulate an essential mechanism for maintaining a balance between stability and change. The Maoists are yet to be transformed fully to a competitive party. The Maoists have failed to convince a large section of the Nepali society that their love for weapons is a thing of the past ...... There are many people inside and outside Nepal who suspect that the Maoists might be using the present peace process to declare Nepal a “Communist State.” ...... not addressing the grievances of various groups in a way that encourages agitating groups to join the mainstream ........ Given the political fluidity and growing unrest, there are doubts that the constituent assembly (CA) election will be held in the stipulated timeframe of mid-June 2007. The speed at which the political process and electoral preparation are currently moving forward is not fast enough to hold the election by the slated time. More importantly, the major issue is not whether the election should be held within the stipulated timeframe but whether Nepal can hold free and fair election so that various marginalized, underrepresented and underprivileged groups are included in the constitution making process. ........ in Namibia and Mozambique , where sufficient electoral preparations were in place, elections clearly played a vital role in making a decisive break with the past. ..... in Angola and Bosnia , premature elections created more problems than they solved ...... experiences from Bosnia, Angola, Cambodia, Mozambique, Haiti, Kosovo, East Timor, Afghanistan, and other countries show that there should be a balance between the impulse and pressure for holding elections early and allowing the political development long enough to prepare a strong ground for election. ........ legislative and presidential elections were to be held simultaneously ...... It took almost two years for the Secretary-General’s Special Representative to conclude that by all indications, the necessary conditions for a free and fair were in place. ...... hastily conducted elections amidst the environment of insecurity could be counter-productive to the whole peace process ....... the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) needs to play a pro-active role in assessing whether Nepal is ready for holding election by the mid-June. ....... the major political parties do not want to shoulder the blame on their part for advocating the delay in holding CA election
JTMM (Singh) to resume armed revolt; Madhesi Tigers release abductees
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Bill on political parties tabled; SAC discusses election bills
Oli surprised over discrepancies of arms and combatants
Top leaders intensify discussion; PM asks Prachanda to have patience on declaring republic Prachanda ... also said the state can punish his party cadres if their acts were illegal.
Pistol episode negates Maoist claims of democratic commitment, says Moriarty
Govt-NFIN talks end inconclusively NFIN negotiators said that the talks ended inconclusively as the government was not serious about the talks. ..... March 5, the deadline given by the NFIN to the government to meet its demands. ..... The NFIN said that it would launch massive agitation if the government failed to meet its demand by March 5. ...... ethnic autonomy, federal system, linguistic freedom, proportional representation in the forthcoming constituent assembly polls and guarantee self-determination.
MJF postpones strike for three days
Sitaula seeks support from Police force to make new Nepal
NA expels two wayward soldiers
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Maoists enter district headquarter with sophisticated weapons
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Madhesi Tigers pounce, abduct 11 from Saptari
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Strikes continue to paralyse normal life in Terai
Major defies panel's summon
Some media houses creating instability: Prachanda Prachanda also said that his party is against the foreign investment in media

Nepali Perspectives

Nepali Perspectives has a graet piece on Bahunism.
Bahunists and Bahunism - A mini-Dissertation on th...


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