Prachanda wants to become Nepal's first president. That is the only reason he wants Girija to be interim prime minister. It is not about him respecting Girija, it is strictly business.
Prachanda knows he himself can not be interim prime minister. But if Sher Bahadur Deuba or Madhav Nepal were to become interim prime minister, both will have a leg up on him for the presidency. He does not want that. I don't blame him.
Prachanda is plotting for his party to emerge the largest party in the constituent assembly. That desire is going to get reflected in the Maoists he will send to the interim parliament and the interim government. He is going to go radical in terms of sending women and ethnics. He is going to send a bunch of them. That is what will help him outshine his rivals in the run up to the constituent assembly elections. Nothing wrong with that.
I have always disapproved of violent politics. But then I have consistently argued for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission. You can punish perhaps a few hundred Maoists and a few hundred Royal Army personnel for the grossest human rights violations during the 10 year civil war. But largely you are looking at general amnesty as the price to be paid for permanent peace.
So, no, I do not begrudge Prachanda his violent past. I think his change of heart is genuine. He truly wants to enter a non-violent, multi-party framework. And in that framework, if he can turn his party into the largest party in Nepal, then so be it. If he can get himself elected president, then so be it. As long he gets there through the ballot box, so be it.
The Sycophants Around Girija Misunderstand
There are all these Congressias talking tall of Girija. Even Prachanda likes him, even Prachanda respects him, even Prachanda accepts him as leader. They are fooling themselves.
I wonder what Girija himself makes of the situation. Is he getting carried away by all this tall talk? Or is he thinking of the future of his party?
Objectively speaking, I consider Girija to be the constitutional monarch of the April Revolution. He opposed the idea of a constituent assembly for as long as he possibly could. That constituent assembly is the centerpiece of the new peace. How can you take credit for an idea that you opposed the loudest for the longest possible time? Girija is still not a republican, and the country is only months away from becoming a republic. No wonder he is not going to be president.
Girija's Failing Health
The guy is 85. Ronald Reagan was in his 70s as president, and people thought him old. I don't think Girija is in a position to campaign for his party. Campaigning is a lot of travel. He just can not do that.
And he is not going to continue to be active for the next seven years. There will be one to two years of the constituent assembly. Then there will be five years of presidency after that. He simply can not do it. It is like me saying I can not run a hundred meters in 10 seconds. I just can not do that. I have my physical limitations.
So Girija could retire now, or he could hang on and watch Prachanda steer his party to emerge the largest. If Prachanda manages to get his party to emerge the largest in the constituent assembly, what will happen next?
On the first day of the first session of the constituent assembly, the country is going to be declared a republic. That is certain. At that point he is going to emerge as a candidate for president. How could you argue against that? If his party is the largest, why not?
That is the future Girija is looking at.
Girija's Best Option
Retire now. Make peace with Deuba. He is your most obvious successor. Unify the two factions. Announce dates for a party convention. Help Deuba become interim prime minister. That is what is in the best interests of your party. That is the only way the Nepali Congress can hope to compete with the Maoists.
For the Maoists it is a choice between emerging the largest or the second largest party. They are not competing with the UML. Their competition is with the Congress. They are not trying to create a Left Front. They want to be the only left party.
The Maoists are within striking distance of becoming the largest party in Nepal.
Prachanda Or Deuba
Girija is not going to be president. But he is in a unique position to decide who will. Is it Prachanda? Or is it Deuba?
Girija can not be forced out. If he decides to stay on as prime minister, he can. He does have that political option. So it is a matter of his free will. How far into the future is he looking? Is he thinking of his party? Or his personal power?
My Bias Against Prachanda
As I said, if he manages to get himself elected president, so be it. I do not mistrust the guy on the idea of multi-party democracy. But I do mistrust him on the market mechanism. Does he get it? Does he understand the role of the basic right to property in the market mechanism?
My fear is Prachanda might get in the way of a double digit economic growth for Nepal. I don't think Deuba is particularly qualified to deliver. But at least he will not get in the way.
Girija
I hope he makes the right choice, and retires. I hope he realizes Deuba is his obvious successor.
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5 comments:
Pamendra, it is an interesting angle to look at why Prachanda wants Girija to lead for now. No wonder you are a political animal.
My biggest concern right now is the leaders have already forgotton the main reason why maoist insurgency took place in the first place. It was the marginalization of the janjatis, madhesis, dalits, and women. The maoists movement has certainly empowered them. There is no mention of the representation of these marginalized groups in the interim government. And more importantly, the proposed mixed election does not guarantee their representation in the constituent assembly. They are left at the mercy of the political parties who would choose their candidates. This is no difference than what they have today.
You are right though, whichever group comes up with the most diverse group of members in the interim government will appeal the mass. Even though I am not a great fan of maoists, but they seem more progressive and diverse at the moment. I have zero confidence in Girija. Unless there is a revolt within the congress and they throw him out, things will not change much there. Girija is a dictator. Girija is still counting on securing 50% seats in the constituent assembly so he can kiss Gyanendra's ass again. Belive me Deuba would be no difference either, if Girija gives him the reigns of the unified congress. But they are miscalculating on people's collective wisdom. They will be wiped out if they remain as stupid as they are.
what is wrong with Prachanda Being president of Nepal? Anyway, competent people like you are not interested for the post and people like you rather prefer who-thinks- what- and- why type analysis rather than jumping into the political waters in Nepal to clean up the mess here.
Let the old Girija die and come Prachanda to lead Nepal.
GB
Why Deuba? Why not Prachanda?
Deuba is not authentic voice of democracy. He dissolved the elected parliament.
And Girija is not thinking of party's future now. He is thinking of Sujata's future in Nepali congress.For nepali people sake I rather prefer Prachanda as the president of nepal than undemocratic leaders Girija and Deuba.
anzan,
Is Prachanda the authentic voice of democracy?
Has he ever conducted an election in his own party?
But this is a moot point. The Maoists will hardly gain 30% of the votes. Time will tell.
All this story will be ending soon. There was no country called Nepal before Prithvi Narayan Shah, the Great created it. Nepal was born as a kingdom. Hence, Nepal was, is, and will never be a republic state. It was, is, and will remain always a glorious kingdom. It may transform into public kingdom but never republic state. With very surprising outcome, His Majesty the King Gyanedra Bir Bikram Shah Dev will be back soon with ceremonial role after the constituent assembly election, if the election happens. If there would be referendum, then that could be a great opportunity for HM the king to demonstrate how much people of Nepal loves him. Anyway, Girija will continue as a PM for few more months. Then, Deuba will be his successor. The dream of Prachanda to become president of Nepal will continue for few more months and after that he will wake up and find himself in Nakkhu jail, his real palace. How can we imagine the killer of thousands innocent become the head of our kingdom? People may argue HM the king is also responsible for such killings. But the real story is it was Deuba who did not listen to Maoists in 1996. Then Girija wanted military force to suppress the Maoists but failed to do so due to HM's denial to engage military force in such political conflicts. Later, all major parties including NC, UML, and RPP approved the proposal put forward by Deuba to use military force. So political leaders Girija, Deuba, Krishna Prasad, Madhav Nepal, Surya Bahadur, Lokendra Bahadur and all parliamentarians are responsible for the killing of 13000 people. However, Prachanda and like faces are the roots of such killing politics. HM the king only continued the same policy of all major parties to suppressing Maoists during HM's direct rule. History will tell this fact. People will soon realize this reality.
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