Political Mistake
It has been irresponsible of Girija Koirala to come out speaking for a ceremonial monarchy. That has been a big mistake. If he were not the Prime Minister, not in the cabinet, not a member of the revived House, it would have been different. But he is the top guy. His words have consequences. His utterance has given the Maoists some ammunition.
The truth is it is not Girija Koirala who will decide the fate of the monachy. The constituent assembly will. If he does not publicly make that point, that can be seen like he were not really for a constituent assembly.
Military Stalemate
It is not possible for the state to put down the Maoists militarily. It is not possible for the Maoists to take over militarily. But if they try, the entire ground situation changes. You are looking at street warfare in Kathmandu. That will also shut down all possibilities of a political resolution. After that the Maoists will either have to win militarily, or they will have to engage in a protracted war with the security forces. Both options look bad for the country.
We will be back to square one.
I don't think too highly of Girija Koirala's political skills. He is good at taking stands and sticking by them. But he is not good at the art of building coalitions. He is not good at extended discussions, at forging consensus. And it does not help that he is physically feeble.
Seven Party Steering Committee Needed
There is an urgent need for such a committee. Right now Girija Koirala has too much discretionary power.
Violent Confrontation Has To Be Avoided At All Costs
I recommend peace at any price, almost any price. Nepal needs peace, not another round of civil war.
I think the trick is to look at the Maoists' political points on merit. Of course this House has to be dissolved at some point. Of course there is a need for an interim parliament. Of course the two armies have to be brought together and fundamentally restructured.
Girija Koirala's reluctance to appreciate these basic points is complicating things. He seems to think he was right in the late 1990s, all except for one thing, that the army did not obey him. As long as he can get the army to obey him, he is fine. That is a fundamentally mistaken view. If that is his sole goal, the guy is merely pushing the country to another round of civil war. This time it will get urban. He is being irresponsible.
Beating The Maoists Politically
I am not apologizing for the Maoists. I am not advocating dealing with them from a position of weakness. What I am saying is the seven party alliance has been doing a poor job of competing with the Maoists politically.
The Maoists put forth a proposal for an interim parliament where they get one third of the 303 seats. When they do that, you don't withdraw. You put out a counter proposal.
They said let's form an eight party government at the center, and eight party governments also at the local levels. Why is that a bad idea?
Absent State
The state does not seem to be in a position to protect citizens in the rural or the urban areas from Maoist extortions. That is an added reason to compete with the Maoists on the political front more fiercely.
Why can't the seven party alliance bring forth proposals for security sector restructuring and the larger state restructuring that are better than that of the Maoists, or at least as good?
Where is your map for federalism? Unless there are competing maps, you can not say no to the Maoist map for the interim period. Because that is the only map on the table for now. But if you have competing maps, then the issue goes to the constituent assembly.
Maoist Dictatorship
The people are not going to put up with it. But they do need proactive leadership from the seven party alliance.
Right now the seven parties have been losing the political battle. Where is the rapid response mechanism of the seven parties? Why have the Maoists managed to make it look like the seven parties are not eager to go for the constituent assembly elections?
What Will Stop The Maoists
Only a political counterbalance of the seven parties will stop the Maoists. There is an urgent need for political work.
The Spirit Of The 12 Point Agreement
It was to realize there is no military solution, there is only a political solution. That spirit has to be revived. The seven parties' getting into power in Kathmandu has not changed that basic reality.
What is the political work?
You look at all the Maoist political demands. You agree with what you agree with. You disagree with what you disagree with. When you disagree, you put forth joint counter proposals. You get proactive. It should not look like the Maoists are pushing you towards the constituent assembly. It should look like you are taking the lead.
If Push Comes To Shove
A violent takeover by the Maoists is out of question. That can not be allowed. But the people have to be made ready for any eventuality. You don't make them ready by failing to do the political work.
In Denial
Some leaders in the seven party alliance are in denial. They are refusing to see the ground situation for what it is.
Constituent Assembly Framework First, Political Polarization Later
The eight parties should not start competing now. Time for competition will be later. First work on the framework for the constituent assembly.
The Maoists Have A Right To Peaceful Assembly, Peacefully Protest
Deciding Now On Monarchy And Army
Bindeshwar Prasad Yadav: Prachanda On Madhesi
Sumit Pokharel: Maps
All Members To The Constituent Assembly Must Be Directly Elected
Prachanda, Madhav, Devendra
100,000 Maoist Militia Must Disarm
Dalit Diaspora Calls For 20 Percent Reservation
Media Can Distort Democracy
Hamas, Hezbollah, Maoist
How To Avoid An October Revolution
Janadesh: Rumblings Of An October Revolution?
Madhesi Self Hate
Arms Management, Money Management
Prachanda: Not In Tune With The April Revolution
Critiquing The Interim Constitution
Prachanda: Frank Or Scary?
Between The Maoists And The Congress
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