Prachanda wants the parliament and the constitution dissolved, and an interim government and an interim constitution set up. I can understand why. The Maoists have no representation in this parliament and no stake in this constitution. And I myself have espoused the cause of an interim constitution and an interim government a long time. (Interim Constitution, Revolutionary Parliament) But that was when the king was saying he did not have the option to revive the 1999 House, and he was right. There were no legal, constitutional provisions to that effect.
But that was then. Now is now. Now the parliament has been revived through a political decision.
The primary goal of this parliament is elections to a constituent assembly. The sooner we get there, the better. It will likely have to happen after monsoon, but there is no reason why it can not happen before Dashain.
According to the 12 point agreement, the two armies are to be put under international supervision and then the country goes to a constituent assembly. I don't see this arrangement as problematic, although this is not my personal first choice. (Dismantle The Two Armies) Besides, it is in the 12 point understanding. We already agreed to it.
But before the seven party alliance can order the state army into UN supervision, it will have to bring it firmly under the parliament first. That has the added advantage of the seven party alliance ending up with an army. That can be an element of strength against any possible attempts at regression from people who just lost power, and also against any possible Maoist misadventures, not that I see any in the works.
We have agreed that the two armies will be placed under UN supervision - and this will be a first in world history, and might as well - and then, after the elections, going by the election results, we will bring the two armies together. Now, this part is not that clear. And this is where we have to drive a hard bargain.
Even if Nepal is to still have an army, it can not be too large, and it has to be representative of all ethnic groups and more in the country. The Maoists have done an amazing job in terms of what proportion of their fighters are women. That proportion has to be retained or enhanced in the unified army. The unified army should have at least 30% Madhesi representation, for example. Many of the top brass in the state army will be gone. The hiring, firing and promotion structures will have to become meritocratic: they will have to be fundamentally redesigned.
I don't think the Maoists do not want to disarm now because they still secretly want a communist republic, and they are simply waiting to pounce on the seven party alliance. I think they want a democratic republic, and in that republic they want an army that is truly representative of the people. Sad to note the Maoists are one step ahead of the seven parties on this topic as well.
The longer the parliament stays on, more will be the money the seven party MPs will make through their salaries, and they will have some extra cash during the elections. I can understand why that is to the Maoists' disadvantage.
But I think the parliament should only be dissolved two months before the election date. This is to limit possibilities of regression. And this is also to keep the pressure on the Maoists during the peace talks. The sooner the talks can take place and conclude, sooner the election dates are announced, sooner the parliament can be dissolved.
The Maoists surely will be part of the interim government that will hold the elections. But that interim government only takes shape after the peace talks have concluded.
So, step one, bring the army firmly under the parliament. Step two, hold peace talks and conclude them fast. I think this phase should be as smooth as the constituent assembly elections topic. Because you already have agreement on the end results, the talks themselves should be smooth and quick.
All seven parties are going to have to take a stand on the army, just like all seven of them are going to have to take a clear stand on the monarchy before they go into the elections to the constituent assembly. How big will be the army? What will its composition be in terms of ethnicity and gender? How will you handle the two armies after the elections? How will you downsize? How will you rightsize to ensure fair representation?
I think the combined army should be 30,000 strong max. More than that would be a waste. And if 30% of them are women, and another 30% Madhesi, you are looking at 12,000 slots for the Pahadi men who have traditionally hogged all the space. Tens of thousands of currently gun toting Pahadi men will have to be sent into the private sector of the economy.
And there is no reason why the constituent assembly should need more than six months to give the country a new constitution. To hold parliamentary elections under a new constitution by next April should be our goal. That is not too ambitious at all. We will likely hold parliamentary and presidential elections all at once. And then local elections within six months of that.
Audio: Interview With Prachanda
Gagan Thapa, Hari Roka, Ram Kumari Jhankri, Rajendra Rai, Krishna Pahadi
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4 comments:
What's the rationale for 2 months? Dissolution of the Parliament is not even mentioned in the 12-point understanding. Why does the Parliament need to be dissolved just because the Maoists are not represented in the Parliament?
The country should not have to go through without the Parliament, arguably the supreme authority of the land. The absence of the Parliament since 2002 is what led to all sorts of misadventures since. Parliament should stay until another one is formed through the conversion of the CA or through another Parliamentary election.
Dissolving the Parliament and the resulting power vaccuum it creates is dangerous. We have to be careful of conspiracies hatched not only from the far-right but from far-left as well.
The parliament has to be dissolved before constituent assembly elections can take place. It will definitely be dissolved at least one month before, if that is how long the election campaign will last. But I said two months to be on the safe side. What I mean to say is that period should not be longer than two months, but can be less, can be a month and a half.
The parliament has to be dissolved before constituent assembly elections can take place.
And why is that? Please explain. The job of the constituent assembly is to write a new constitution. This process may take several months assuming everything goes smoothly.
The value of the constitution is not how quickly it is drawn up, rather how long it lasts. The Constitution of 1990 took a year to write and is already in need of a rewrite. The US Constitution took 14 years to write but is still in place today.
Rather than rush, it is important to give enough time as is necessary for the CA to come up with the new constitution. So that it doesn't have to be rewritten again 15 years down the road.
Given the fact that 1) the CA's sole mandate is to write a new constitution and 2) the CA could take quite some time to finalize, it follows that the Parliament would be necessary to amend existing laws or make new ones in the meantime.
The Parliament would supplement the CA. Why should the Parliament and the CA be mutually exclusive?
The 12-point understanding of the Maoists only calls for the restoration of the Parliament. It does not even remotely mention dissolution. Or am I missing something??
I produce the second point of the agreement below.
2. The seven agitating parties are fully committed to the fact that only by establishing absolute democracy through the restoration of the Parliament with the force of agitation, forming an all-party government with complete authority, holding elections to a constituent assembly through dialogue and understanding with the Maoists, can the existing conflict in the country be resolved and sovereignty and state power completely transferred to the people. It is the view and commitment of the CPN (Maoist) that the above mentioned goal can be achieved by holding a national political conference of the agitating democratic forces, and through its decision, forming an interim government to hold constituent assembly elections. An understanding has been reached between the agitating seven parties and the CPN (Maoist) to continue dialogue on this procedural work-list and find a common understanding. It has been agreed that the force of people's movement is the only alternative to achieve this.
२. आन्दोलनको शक्तिले संसद्को पुनस्र्थापन गर्ने र त्यसको निर्णयले अधिकार सम्पन्न सर्वदलीय सरकार, माओवादीसंग वार्ता र सहमतिका आधारमा संविधानसभाको निर्वाचन गरी पूर्ण लोकतन्त्र स्थापना गरेर नै देशमा विद्यमान द्वन्द्वको समाधान गर्न सकिन्छ र सार्वभौमसत्ता र राजकीय सत्ता पूर्णरुपले जनतामा स्थापित गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने कुरामा आन्दोलनरत सात राजनीतिक दलहरु पूर्ण प्रतिबद्ध छन् । आन्दोलनरत लोकतान्त्रिक शक्तिहरुको राष्ट्रिय राजनीतिक सम्मेलन गर्ने र त्यसको निर्णयले अन्तरिम सरकार बनाई संविधानसभाको निर्वाचन गरेर उल्लेखित लक्ष्य हासिल गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने ने.क.पा.-माओवादी) को धारणा र प्रतिबद्धता रहेको छ । यो प्रक्रियागत कार्यसूचीको विषयमा आन्दोलनरत सात राजनीतिक दल र ने.क.पा.-माओवादी) बीचमा सम्वाद चलाउँदै जाने र साझा सहमतिको खोजी गर्ने समझदारी बनेको छ । उक्त लक्ष्य हासिल गर्न जनआन्दोलनको शक्ति नै एक मात्र विकल्प हो भन्ने कुरामा समझदारी भएको छ ।
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