Thursday, April 27, 2006

Madhav Nepal

1

December 27, 2005.

Madhavji.

This is me establishing a private channel of communication with you. The webpages in this folder are protected from the search engines, and hence are private.

You know much more about Nepali politics than I do. And I am not trying to crown anybody. Yahan New York City basee basee. Ra tapain lai thaha nai chha I have a family relationship with the Sadbhavana. I am a Sadbhavana person. Although I do have a healthy respect for the UML. But it is my commitment to the ideal of democracy and the difficult situation that Nepal is in that draws me to you.

Yo bigat dui mahina ma UML le dekhayeko agrasarata sarhai nai sarahaniya chha.

Huna ta tapain le baddapan dekhaunu bhako chha. UML will not lay the alliance hostage on the PM issue bhannu bha chha. But I think the times for niceties are passe.

I think you have to mentally prepare yourself to be the interim Prime Minister. It is a choice between you and GPK, but he is disqualified. (1) Your party is much larger than his. (2) You and your party practice internal democracy much better than him. There is no Nepal family thing going on in the UML. (3) In preferring to go straight to the interim government idea, you do realize the pitfalls of reviving the House. (4) You and your party have offered a greater clarity. (5) Your rallies have been drawing the larger crowds. (6) Koirala's health is failing.

But the biggest reason is that the job of the interim Prime Minister is going to be very hard. This is not going to be like for Kisunji. Your job will be much tougher. GPK simply can not do it. You must mentally prepare. You can not come forward until the time is ripe. But in your mind you should have no doubts. It is you. It can not be GPK.

You will be the interim Prime Minister. And likely your party will also win a majority in the parliament after a new constitution. So you will also be the first PM post-democracy, post-elections. It is important to be clear about this. Because you will be the person taming the army.

The roadmap I suggest is of an interim government and an interim constitution that makes the PM the Commander In Chief of the army. Then, through UN and major powers mediation, you would partially integrate the Maoist army into the state army. So there is only one army when the country goes through elections for a constituent assembly.

Then as duly elected PM and C In C, you would downsize the integrated army and bring it down in size to 30,000. And also reorganize the army. A lot of the people at the top will likely get fired. But you perhaps do not want to do all that as interim PM. As interim PM, you just want to make the army get used to the idea that a janata ko chhora is C In C. Visit a lot of the barracks. Meet a lot of foot soldiers. Attend many of the army ceremonies. Regularly hold meetings with the army top brass and be seen giving them instructions. Basically showing people you really are in command.

I don't believe GPK could do all this. I respect his decades' long contribution to democracy. But the future can not be held hostage to that past.

Dealing with the king is not going to be easy. The guy still has a few cards he can play.

Then there is the constituent assembly itself. That is a lot of work. GPK would not have the skill or the stamina.

So think of the country. And mentally decide now that you are the interim PM in waiting.

I will stay in touch.

On to victory.

2

January 9, 2006.

Madhavji.

Your party has offered clarity with two words: democratic republic. My focusing on your individual name is the same thing. It is about clarity. The more clarity we can offer, less talk there will be of some kind of a vacuum.

Why you? Because it is between you and GPK. But it has to be you because you lead the largest party, and you are the more qualified. If Hridayesh Tripathy were leading the largest party, it would have been him. It is a simple democratic choice, a simple mathematical calculation on my part.

But the bigger reason is to make sure all possible worst case scenarios are avoided, and there is this one person who puts a lot of thought into it.

What could be some of the worst case scenarios?

The king could impose martial law. It would hurt him further, but he could go for it if he feels desperate enough.
The king could get ousted, and the army could stage a coup if the ouster is chaotic. Pyar Jung could become the Nepali Musharraf.
The king could get ousted, the army could get disbanded, and the Maoists could change their mind and go back to their goal of a communist republic, to be achieved immediately. Nepal could end up a one party state of the Maoists.

I don't see any of these three happening. But we do have to watch out. And there has to be this one person who is going to be the interim prime minister as well as the first president of Nepal who will make sure these three scenarios do not unfold.

Girija Babu has a huge stature, but then so did Ganesh Man Singh. This is not about disrespect. This is about what will be best for the country.

It is not just about mainstreaming the Maoists, it is also about mainstreaming the RNA. And neither can really be trusted. We don't trust them. We trust the roadmap that we create. We trust them both one step at a time.

I would think the Maoists do not get to join the interim government before the peace talks are successfully concluded. And the country does not go through a constituent assembly before the two armies are integrated. The army will be in your command, not that of the UN. The army top brass will accept you, but not the UN. That is my reading of the situation.

You become Commander In Chief as interim PM, but you only make changes at the top levels of the army as a duly elected President. Give them some time to get used to the idea. Being UML General Secretary, interim PM, Commander In Chief, and President will be four different things, although all related.

But those are down the line. The first task is to dismantle this regime, and I think you and your seven party colleagues are on schedule. We are honored to be supporting you from this end.