Democracy For Nepal: Himal Survey

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Himal Survey

Himal’s Nepal-wide Political Survey*

*Figures Based entirely on Himal Survey:

http://www.himalkhabar.com/content/view/440/1/

Table 1:

On the King’s Direct Rule since Feb 1st
Not positive (do not support)	65%
Positive (support)	25%
Neutral (no opinion)	10%
Total	100%

Table 2:

On the State of the Nation
bad	57.4%
anarchic/frightening	33.6%
(missing)	8%
Total	91 % (100%)

Table 3:

On the Maoist Insurgency
bad	59%
“It’s ok”	25.2%
don’t know	8%
(Missing)	7.8%
Total	92.2 % (100%)

Table 4:

How to Solve the Maoist Insurgency ?
king-party-maoist talks	60%
king-maoist talks	22.2%
party-maoist talks	7.2%
military defeat of maoists	1.1%
surrender by maoists	3.4%
Total	100%

Table 5:

How to end political conflict/confusion/crisis ?
all party government	47.8%
parliamentary elections	15.1%
constituent assembly	10.9%
house revival	6%
(missing)	20.2%
Total	79.8% (100%)

Table 6:

views/position on the monarchy
constitucional monarchy	46.1%
absolute monarchy	.8%
monarchy is not necessary	15%
monarchy is indispensable	24.4%
ceremonial monarchy	5.6%
no comment	7.8%
Total	100%

Table 7:

On the SPAM first round of 12 point agreement
have not heard about it	54%: of which: 58.5% rural 46.2% urban 69% women
have heard about it	44.3%: of which: 72.6% = good thing 20.9% = bad thing
Total	98.3%

Table 8:

Need for Outside help/facilitation to solve crisis ?
No	40.2%
Yes	50.1%: of which: UN 23.5% India 35% USA 20% China 14.5
(missing)	9.7%
Total	90.3% (100%)

Table 9:

The constitutional question
need new constitution	19.6%: of which: 66% by const. assembly by some kind of aayog: 28%
amend current constitution	31%
curent constitution is ok	20.4%
no opinion	29%
Total	100%

Table 10:

Awareness of Constituent Assembly
never heard of it	34.4%
heard of it	57.1%: of which: 40.9% don’t understand it 44.1% understand it somewhat 14.8% understand it well Subtotal = 100%
no answer	8.5%

Total	100%

Table 11:

Opinons/views on the municipal elections
was not good/right	59%
was good/right	25.9%
no answer	14.2%
Total	100%

Table 12:

king-called parliamentary elections possible?
No	61.1%: of which: 45.1 % b/c of maoists 33% b/c polls cannot be free 20.1% b/c parties cannot/will not participate
yes	22.5%
don’t know	16.1%
Total	99.7%

Table 12:

Hypothetically, if elections could be held today who World you vote for?
20.8%	Undecided
19.2%	UML
18.3%	NC
11.5%	CPN(M)
7.3%	independent
3.7%	RPP
2.3%	NC(D)
Total for parties = 79.2% (??) (16.9% of party vote missing who does this belong to?) (2.3% for NC(D), less than RPP sounds wrong)

Total	100%

Some remarks I would like to make.

(1) What has been the methodology of this survey? How many people were asked questions? Can the sample be said to be representative of Nepal? What kind of questions were asked? In what settings? What was done to make sure the sample was as representative as possible?

(2) 2/1 is highly unpopular. The two extremes are unpopular. The king's autocracy and the Maoists' violence are both disliked.

(3) There is huge support for the idea of a roundtable conference between the three forces.

(4) The people want an all party government as a next step.

(5) 25% are strongly for a monarchy, 45% are for a constitutional monarchy, 5% for a ceremonial monarchy, and 1% for an absolute monarchy. What this means is if the people were to decide on the fate of the monarchy through a constituent assembly, they will retain it in a strictly constitutional form.

(6) Half the country has not heard of the 12 point agreement. I am not surprised. During Newt Gingrich' 1994 "revolution," the majority of Americans said they had never heard of the Contract With America document. Actually half is a good number to have.

(7) UN, India, US, EU and China should all help the peace process.

(8) The constituent assembly is not a wildly popular idea, but then it is because the people have not been explained the idea. 35% have never heard of the idea. Majority of those who have heard of it don't understand it.

(9) The king's electoral experiments are set to bomb. If the parliamentary elections were to be held, the Maoists would be more crucial to its failure than the seven party alliance.

(10) The Maoists would emerge the third largest party in the country. Looks to me like elections will be good for both the extremes, the monarchy survives, the Maoists emerge large.

(11) Deuba Congress is in trouble. Kind of like Bamdev Gautam's breakaway UML faction a few years back. But considering the Congress often wins with narrow margins, the Deuba Congress could really hurt the Koirala Congress. If the numbers here are to be believed, the Deuba Congress will fare worse than the RPP.

(12) It is entirely possible the Maoists might be third in terms of votes, but second equal in terms of seats in a parliament.

(13) Constituent Assembly, Democratic Republic: these are ideas that can be "sold" to the people. These are ideas that give political parties homework. The work is to raise the political consciousness of the people.

The Nepali version seems to be fuller.

यदि अहिले माओवादीले हतियार बिसाएर संसदको चुनाव भयो भने भोट कसलाई दिनुहुन्छ?
एमाले १९.७%
नेपाली काङ्ग्रेस १८.३%
नेकपा (माओवादी) ११.४%
स्वतन्त्र ८.७%
राप्रपा ७.३%
नेपाली काङ्ग्रेस (प्र.) ३.७%
राप्रपा (कमल थापा) २.३%
जनमोर्चा नेपाल ०.९%
नेमकिपा ०.८%
सद्भावना (आनन्दीदेवी) ०.७%
राष्ट्रिय जनशक्ति पार्टी ०.४%
सद्भावना (मण्डल) ०.१%
राजा वा राजाको पार्टी ०.१%
अन्य १.१%
भोटनै दिन्न ३.८%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न २०.८%

अहिले देशको समग्र स्थिति कस्तो छ?
राम्रो ३.१%
पहिले जस्तै ५%
कहालीलाग्दो/अन्यौलपूर्ण ३३.६%
नराम्रो ५७.४%

राम्रो या नराम्रो स्थितिको जिम्मेवारी कसलाई दिनुहुन्छ?
राजा ३२.७%
माओवादी ३२.६%
दलहरू २६.६%
विदेशी शक्ति १.५%
अन्य ०.६%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न ६%

नयाँ संविधान कसरी बनाउनुपर्ला?
राजाबाट आयोग बनाएर १०.१%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न ५.२%
संसदबाट १८.५%
संविधान सभाबाट ६६.३%

दुई महिनाअघिको नगरनिर्वाचन कस्तो लाग्यो?
ठीक लाग्यो २६%
ठीक लागेन ५९%
अन्य १%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न १४%

अहिलेको परिस्थितिमा एक वर्षभित्र संसदीय चुनाव हुनसक्ला?
सक्दैन ६१%
सक्छब २२.५%
अन्य ०.४%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न १६.१%

केही समयअघि भएको माओवादी दलहरूबीचको समझ्ादारीबारे थाहा छ?
थाहा छ ५४%
थाहा छैन ४४.३%
अन्य १.६%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न ०.१%

थाहा भए कस्तो लाग्यो?
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न ६.४ %
ठीक छ ७२.६%
ठीक छैन २१%

अहिले देशमा कसको शासन छ?
राजाको प्रत्यक्ष ६७%
सेनाको भरमा राजाको १३%
राजाका मान्छेको ३%
दलहरूको ७%
माओवादीको ६%
शासन नै छैन २%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न २%

राजाले सरकारमा रहेका दलहरूलाई हटाई आफैँ शासन गरेको कस्तो लाग्छ?
ठीक लागेको छ २४%
ठीक लागेको छैन ६५%
थाहा छैन/भन्न चाहन्न ११%

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2 April