Revise The 12 Point Agreement In Delhi
The 12 point agreement was at best a first draft. It was a great piece of writing, but it needed some serious feedback which it has got. There are particular elements of that agreement that stand like gaping holes. Those need to be patched, and I have talked about the same before.
But the biggest weakness of the 12 point agreement has been that it has not been a dynamic document. It has not seen the movement as something that will pass through several phases before it culminates in success. And it has not imagined all possible scenarios for each phase and devised strategies for each such scenario.
Phase 1: Eight Party Alliance
As long as the Maoists are committed to laying down arms before elections to a constituent assembly, and are willing to cease violence to make total political space for one final decisive push of a movement, it is perfectly okay for the seven party alliance to invite them into a larger, formal eight party alliance. The best part of such a formation will be that instead of having several rounds of talks, a permanent communication mechanism will be setup, and the eight parties will talk to each other on a daily basis. Talks will no longer be news. The details of such talks will be news. Lack of talks will be big news.
Scenario 1.1: Maoists decide not to disarm before the constituent assembly elections
Response: That should ring alarm bells among the seven party alliance. But that is no reason to stop or slow down the movement. Instead an attempt should be made to engineer a military coup by the young RNA officers whose sole goal would be to take over power to hand it over to the seven party alliance and physically capture the villains of the current regime. This would be playing hardball. A lot of the army top brass would get purged subsequently. The reward for the young officers: a reorganized, meritocratic, professional army that has the respect of the global community, a possible end to the civil war, democracy for the country.
Scenario 1.2: The eighty party alliance is formed, but the regime cuts off the telephone lines of the seven party leadres.
Response: Seek diaspora funds to install satellite phones and perhaps even a FM station. Leaders go underground en masse. Set up coordination centers in many border towns. Engage in massive pamphleteering, postering. Make the threat absolutely clear so as to prevent any crackdown. Engage in massive pamphleteering among the security forces.
Phase 2: Decisive Movement
You are looking at getting hundreds of thousands of people out into the streets of Kathmandu that moves to surround the Narayanhiti until the regime falls. And you are looking at large masses of people out into the streets in all of the 60 or so towns, and the thousands of villages. The whole thing, once it takes off, will be over in a few days. But the initiation has to be coordinated, the logistical details have to be worked out, and all possible scenarios have to be imagined.
Scenario 2.1: Curfew like for January 20.
Response: Postpone the massive street demonstration by exactly one day each time. It is not possible they can impose curfew day after day.
Scenario 2.2: Military crackdown.
Response: Record everything. Attempt a coup. Get firm on punishing the villains swiftly after assuming power by setting up a country tribunal to deny them of liberty and property, possibly life.
Phase 3: Taking Over Power
There are several ways this could happen. But this would be an interim government of the seven parties to hold peace talks with the Maoists to culminate in an interim government of the eight parties.
Scenario 3.1: The movement has reached a crescendo, but the king is not budging.
Response: Unilaterally declare the 1999 House revived and an all party government formed. This is to be a revolutionary parliament. It will not be bound by the limitations of the 1990 constitution. I expect the foreign powers to swiftly recognize it. That parliament could abolish the monarchy in one swift vote, for example. It could commandeer the army similarly, and reorganize the top brass.
Scenario 3.2: The king invites the seven party alliance for talks.
Response: No talks are possible unless all political prisoners are unconditionally and immediately freed and all ordinances that curb human rights are immediately withdrawn.
Scenario 3.3: The king releases all political prisoners immediately and unconditionally, withdraws all ordinances that go against human rights, announces he is okay with the idea of a constituent assembly, then invites the seven party alliance for talks, but says he wants an all party government to take the country there, and invites the seven party alliance for talks. He says he is okay with the idea of an interim constitution that makes the interim prime minister the commander in chief of the army.
Response: Take it. No need to revive the House.
Phase 4: Peace Talks
This is when the Maoists disarm.
Scenario 4.1: Dismantle both the armies under UN supervision.
Respone: This is my personal favorite. Nepal needs to be spending its money on education and health.
Scenario 4.2: Partial reintegration of the two armies to lead to downsizing of the overall army such that both armies shed similar proportions.
Response: This is also viable.
Scenario 4.3: A bloated, integrated army.
Response: Short term okay, long term problematic in terms of budget strains.
Phase 5: Constituent Assembly
You can not be working with the 205 constituencies demarcated in the 1990 constitution. I suggest the formation of 300 constituencies of near equal population, shaped like circles or squares, and disregarding all political boundaries like districts and zones.
In The News
RNA should not run FM stations: Shah NepalNews former Brigadier General of RNA Dipta Prakash Shah has also objected the RNA’s plan to run FM stations....... “The army is not anyone’s personal property. There is a clear legal provision about what they can and cannot do,” he said, adding, the RNA’s interest in FM radios is illegal......... they could have bought time from any of the two dozens FM stations running across the country ....... the army wanting to take part in political, economic and logistic spheres of the State was a matter of grave concern to every citizen....... yet another conspiracy to dry up the (economic) resources of independent FM stations ...... another step towards curbing free press
Seven parties holding talks with Maoists: leaders to fine-tune the 12-point understanding and encourage them to call off blockades and the general strike they have called and declare an unilateral truce...... effectively implement the 12-point understanding ...... talks are being held at various stages ...... Bharat Mohan Adhikari ....... Adhikari, who met visiting US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, Donald Camp, thanked the US for extending solidarity with the alliance’s peaceful movement which would gain momentum in the second week of April......... it is not possible for the rebels to impose a communist dictatorship ........ Camp came here to convey US president George Bush’s message to the King, but the monarch is learnt to have told Camp that he would announce a date for general elections..........
12 injured in explosions
Seven injured in Sarlahi clash
King grants audience to security chiefs The King granted audience to chiefs of Royal Nepalese Army-Pyar Jung Thapa, Armed Police Force- Saha Bir Thapa, Nepal Police- Shyam Bhakta Thapa and National Investigation Department- Devi Ram Sharma. .... The King had also granted audience to the ministers and leaders of various political parties in Pokhara......
Oppositon parties trying to create anarchy: Home Minister Thapa ....... a hardening stance of the government towards the opposition ....... Kamal Thapa has accused the seven party opposition alliance of trying to create anarchy in the country in collaboration with the Maoist rebels....... “The government would not let it happen at any cost” .......... the King was in favour of holding talks with all political forces in the country ...... blamed what he called the “stubborn demands” of the agitating political parties for failure in holding talks...... “The government was ready to hold talks with the rebels if they were really willing for dialogue” ...... Padma Sundar Lawati, accused that Nepal’s southern neighbour, India, was responsible for intensifying the armed conflict in Nepal. He said conflict in Nepal would not subside “unless India stops supply of arms to the rebels.” ....... critics allege that India has not taken keen interest to curb the activities of Nepali Maoists in its territory.
It rains in Kathmandu
Hundreds of passengers stranded in Sarlahi the transportation to eastern part of the country from the district was at a standstill due to the obstruction created by the Maoists....... urged the Maoists not to create obstacles in the free movement of the people as guaranteed by the Article 3 of the Geneva Convention of Human Rights.
Change in government is not the solution: Dhungana Damannath Dhungana said on Thursday in Pokhara that the change in leadership of the government would not give solution to the present crisis ....... urged the agitating political parties not to sit for talks with the king only for change in government leadership. He warned that the political parties would be isolated from the people if they were trapped by such ploy. He asked the political parties to intensify their protests....... the people's movement is only way ......Dhungana welcomed the talk between the parties and the rebels in New Delhi and claimed that the dialogue would help to form a broader political front for people's movement
Peace is possible after restoration of HoR: Leaders vowed not to reach any agreement with the King in present circumstance ....... called on people not to take every political leader as corrupt, and said, “Movement for total democracy cannot see success without popular support.” ..... urged district-based leaders to visit every household to garner support ....... Central member of the CPN-UML, Rajendra Shrestha, stressed on the need to restructure the RNA, adding, “The RNA is working to protect one single family and not the people.” ......
Government committed to hold parliamentary polls: Dr Giri ..... the government is working to hold the parliamentary elections ...... the first national conference of the Federation of National Journalists (FENAJ) ....... parliamentary elections are needed to check possible judicial anarchy ...... “According to the constitution, the SC has the right to check the monarch’s powers, but in the absence of a parliament there is no one to check judicial anarchy” ........ Giri said he does not believe that reconciliation between the king and the parties can curb terrorism. ....... “I also do not believe that the so-called democratic rule can control terrorism. See how the world’s largest democracy, India, is suffering” ........ ruled out the possibility of conditional dialogue with the parties .......
No possibility of early breakthrough in Nepal's political deadlock: Donald Camp he saw no possibility of early breakthrough in the current political deadlock in Nepal....... was barred from meeting CPN (UML) leader Madhav Kumar Nepal ...... met UML acting general secretary Amrit Kumar Bohara and standing committee member Bharat Mohan Adhikari and K P Sharma Oli. ...... a joint rally scheduled for April 8. ...... the US view over the recent civil polls as a “hollow exercise” ...... Camp said the proposed parliamentary elections next year would not be different than that of the recent one if the political parties were not involved in it....... the agreement could be laudable “should that [12-point understanding] work out”...... “It’s a deteriorating human rights situation. King’s February 1 move contributed to the deterioration.” ..... expressed hope that the government would release Nepal and other political detainees soon
Vice chairman Bista dismisses Dr Giri's remarks Vice-Chairman in the council of ministers Kirti Nidhi Bista has dismissed recent remarks by another vice chairman in the cabinet, Dr Tulsi Giri’s remarks that collaboration between the constitutional forces were not going to resolve the country’s crisis as his personal opinion....... solution to the present crisis would not be found without the active participation of the political parties...... Surya Bahadur Thapa also dismissed Dr Giri's remarks saying that he was not the main character in the country’s politics. ..... Kamal Thapa, too, said reconciliation among constitutional forces was essential for bailing the country out of the present crisis..... Thapa, however, said there was no possibility of immediate truce with the rebels.
12 injured in Maoist bomb explosions Kantipur Publications
FNJ announces fresh stir
Alliance keeps up talks with rebels
Parties hatching conspiracy: Home Minister
7 security men killed in fresh clashes
Police killed 5 youths in captivity: NHRC
King must reach out to parties: Donald Camp
Article 127 can be interpreted only by parliament: Giri
7 security men killed in fresh clash in eastern Nepal Xinhua, China
Four dead in Maoist attack in Nepal ISN, Switzerland
Nepal: Peace, Politics and Diplomatic Feedback Nepalnews.com, Nepal
US Re-urges Nepal King to Reach Out to Parties
Nepal's King and Opposition Locked in Standoff, US Envoy Says
Nepal reeling from acute power crisis Gulf Times, Qatar
Political stalemate in Nepal and terrorism separate: Giri NewKerala.com, India
Butchers of Nepal libcom.org, UK
“Nepal doesn’t have the luxury of time” Nepali Times, Nepal
India should change its Nepal policy
NEPAL: Red Cross resumes monitoring of army detainees Reuters AlertNet, UK
Nepal army allows Red Cross to resume barracks visits
Five Maoists Killed in Rautahat Clash: RNA
Nepal’s rights record worsened in 2005: US Kantipur Online, Nepal
King grants audience to security chiefs Nepalnews.com, Nepal
Delhi-Pokhara
Nepal - Maoist to announce ceasefire? Mero Sansar, NY
Father's search for son unearths grisly killings by Nepal police NewKerala.com, India
1 mother dies in every 2 hours in Nepal Xinhua, China
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1 comment:
Scenario 4.1: Dismantle both the armies under UN supervision.
Respone: This is my personal favorite. Nepal needs to be spending its money on education and health.
Basically you wanna take away the job of soldiers ..most of them are poor folks from villages anway... What will be their new job... Insurgent-cy !!!
You are dumb beyond belief..
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