Democracy For Nepal: The King's Clowns And The Baathists Of Iraq

Sunday, March 05, 2006

The King's Clowns And The Baathists Of Iraq

There are parallels.

There are maybe 30 families, perhaps 50 individuals in the army, maybe 10 relatives to the king, maybe maybe five cabinet members but that's about it. That is the extent of the support the king has. And these are not even people who will stick with him to the end.

You have to study the dynamics. These people are never going to change their minds. They feel one way now. They are going to feel that same way when the movement has hit its climax. They are going to be unrepentant after the regime falls. If some of them end up in jail or in exile, they will not have changed their minds even then. They are going to keep planning a comeback for the rest of their lives. It is called mental momentum.

You can try and wish it away, but there is something to looking at reality like it is.

This king is going to dig in his heels and fight. He is just going to stay there. The guy is not exactly trying to engage the seven party alliance in dialogue. The virus has mutated, and Moriarty does not seem to know it.

This is a dictator, plain and simple.

There is no alternative to a mass movement. He is not going to hand over the power to the democrats. Power is to be snatched away from him.

The king looks into the TV camera and lies. He looks straight into your face and lies.

His threshhold for pain is high. Say you hold one mass rally a week. Does that bother him? No, Sir. When the Maoists destroy town after town, does that bother him? No, Sir. If India were to let the trade and transit treaty expire, would that bother him? No, Sir. If Europe and the US were to impose smart sanctions, would that bother him? No, Sir.

The only way he will vacate that palace is if a mob goes in and gets him out. This guy is not walking out. He is not even going into exile. He is just going to sit there. It is the feudal mindset. Beyond a point it just goes into denial.

The parties keep hoping the king will invite them for a royal audience like Birendra did. I just don't see that happening. The day the king came back from Africa was the UML's first major rally in Kathmandu. The UML collaborated with the police to end the rally at 3 PM, to make sure they were out of the way when the king arrived. His Majesty thinks the people are not with us. Here, Your Majesty, here is some evidence to the contrary, now audience time.

This guy is no Birendra. How do I know? He said so.

The seven party alliance is just going to have to sit down and do the homework. There is going to have to be a plan A, a plan B and a plan C. For example, why was there no plan B for Janaury 20? Why did not more leaders go underground?

Ask Saddam today if he ever did any wrong? He will say no, never. And the guy is as thoroughly out of power as can be. If the seven party alliance and the foreign powers are trying to convince the king, they are barking up the wrong tree. This guy is not trying to get convinced.

The strategy has to be to isolate the king and his clowns. The rats will abandon the ship. This ship is going down.

Moriarty needs to stop preaching reconciliation, and start "arming" the democrats with the tools of nonviolent democratic struggle if he cares. Or he can just sidestep.

Undeclared Ceasefire, Decisive Movement

If the Maoists really want a democratic republic, the best thing they could do is go through a phase of undeclared ceasefire. It would be unrealistic to expect them to declare another unilateral ceasefire. But they sure can put an end to their offensives. If they bring all their offensives to an end, suddenly there will be all this space for the seven party alliance to wage this one, final decisive movement. This movement has to conclude before monsoon sets in. This is a race against time.

The idea has to be to wage this one massive street protest that would culminate in the declaration of a revolutionary parliament. Although this will be the 1999 parliament, this will not be within the 1990 constitution. This will be a revolutionary parliament. It could try the king and his clowns, for one. There could be loss of liberty and property on their side.

Yes, there are terrorists in Nepal. The top guy is wearing a crown.

Joel Mowbray on Baathists & Iraq on National Review Online ...... Saddam Hussein promised that there would be "chaos" if the United States were to control Iraq ..... Saddam was either remarkably prescient — or simply accurate in predicting what his henchmen would be able to carry out in the aftermath of the war...... If there's one tactic that Baathists perfected in 35 years of Baath-party rule, it's how to stage events purely for propaganda purposes. ........ There is strong evidence to suggest that the Baathists are, in fact, behind much of the unrest in Iraq that has been broadcast to the rest of the world...... evidence implicating Baathist support for organized chaos, particularly in the middle- and upper-middle-class neighborhoods of Baghdad — home to the most-influential Iraqis........ The terror campaign has consisted of both very public acts, such as carjackings, and terror-inducing crimes, such as kidnapping and rape....... The acts of violence are far from random. Specific individuals, for example, have been targeted to have maximum psychological impact. Last week, one of Baghdad's leading neurosurgeons was murdered in his home....... the "vandals" knew the intricate details of the grid — something only the Baathists who had run the country and managed the grid would likely know.......De-Baathification has been a stated administration goal since even before the war began........ the State Department's worldview, which believes in "pragmatism" — and "stability." ...... State has for years worked to undermine the pro-democracy Iraqi National Congress — even asking auditors to falsify their findings — in large part because the INC's stated mission of democratic reform is inimical to Foggy Bottom's obsession with "stability." ........ State is ironically propping up the very people who are intentionally destabilizing Iraq with a coordinated terror campaign....... minimizing the role of those who don't support true de-Baathification will be critical...... bringing meaningful and lasting freedom to Iraq — he must adopt a zero-tolerance policy towards Baathists
ParaPundit: Revenge Killings Of Baathists In Iraq The Baathists are going to try to regain power and influence. Some are conducting organized campaigns of sabotage. They are quite willing to do killing and intimidation of their own.
Syria permits the entry of split Baathists from Iraq
NPR : Analysis: Baathists in the New Iraq
Saddam of Iraq vs Asad of Syria
CNN.com - Policy easing to bring Baathists into new Iraq - Apr 22 ...

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