Democracy For Nepal: The Nepalgunj Attack: Military Stalemate Continues

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

The Nepalgunj Attack: Military Stalemate Continues

Eight killed in Nepalgunj attack NepalNews ...... the Maoist attack at key security installations in the mid-western town of Nepalgunj late Tuesday...... the Maoist raid that started at around 8:15 p.m. and lasted for more than two hours ....... security personnel are searching the whole city and there is heavy security presence in the town....... Hundreds of armed Maoists attacked the district police office, the regional police training centre, Nepal Rastra Bank, the municipal police office, the RNA’s No 4 Company at Ranjha, district prison, zonal police office and the district administration office at the same time...... The Maoists attacked the municipal police office, the zonal police office, the district police office and the district prison for an hour after engaging the army in the RNA’s company barrack......... rebels retreated after 10 p.m. in various directions ....... Security personnel have recovered a tractor believed to have used by the rebels to ferry their guerrillas....... Nepalgunj is the second most fortified town in the country after the capital, Kathmandu....... Last Friday, at least six policemen were killed when Maoist rebels had attacked two police check posts in Nepalgunj. Three policemen were killed in the raid at a police post at BP Chowk at around 6:00 p.m. while three policemen were killed at Jamunaha police post near the Nepal-India border around the same time.
Two security men killed; 8 injured in Nepalgunj attack Nepalnews.com, Nepal
Two securitymen killed in Maoists attack in Nepalgunj Webindia123
Maoists attack Nepalgunj, Fighting going on (News Update) Nepali Times
Maoists attack Nepalgunj, Fighting going on Nepalnews.com
Massive Maoists attack in Nepal Times of India, India Maoist guerrillas launched a series of massive attacks in a key city in Nepal, a day after the Home Minister said security has been beefed up across the country ..... a simultaneous attack on more than five targets ...... The state media, devoted to election propaganda, ignored the raid. ..... less than a week after twin attacks by the rebels in the same city .....
Guerrillas massive attacks in mid-western Nepal kill 2 security ... China Daily, China anti-government forces launched massive attacks at almost all the security posts in Nepalgunj...... with bombs and modern weapons ..... A state of terror has gripped the locale after the Nepalgunj market, some 600 km west of Kathmandu was rocked with explosions and unabated firing from early evening...... Series of explosions occurred around the town till late in the evening.
Massive Maoist attack in midwest Nepal NewKerala.com, India
Nepal rebels attack town as pressure mounts on king Reuters AlertNet, UK setting off a string of explosions at government buildings and police posts .... The assault came hours after riot police clashed with pro-democracy protesters across the country on Tuesday, firing tear gas, using water cannons and employing baton charges to break up anti-king demonstrations........ Coordinated attacks ...... Nepalgunj is the biggest town close to the Maoist heartland in west Nepal ...... First there were big explosions and then continuous gunshots ...... The Maoists have carried out a series of attacks across Nepal since ending their four-month unilateral ceasefire on Jan. 2 ...... They said they would expand their decade-old anti-monarchy revolt to city centres and stop the Feb. 8 municipal elections.....
Guerrillas massive attacks in mid-western Nepal kill 2 security ... Xinhua, China

I am no military analyst, but some observations I make:

The Maoists had attacked the town less than a week before. So this second attack can not have been a surprise.
Nepalgunj is the most fortified town in Nepal after Kathmandu. This might have been the Maoist dress rehearsal for Kathmandu itself.
The Home Minister had announced only a day before that security had been beefed across the country.
The security forces in town did not see the Maoists coming. That shows poor or non-existent intelligence operations. The state security forces seem to be guarding only the immediate premises of wherever they are stationed. They don't really seem to venture out. The morale seems to be low.
When the Maoists retreated, they were not followed by the state security forces. Instead they blanketed the town the following day. They felt the need to show off to the civilians instead.
The Maoists retreated in all directions. That shows the Maoists have strategically encircled Nepalgunj. That is still true also after the attack. Nepalgunj is in the flatlands. The security forces had the option to follow the Maoists in vans. They did not take that option. The state is very much on the defensive.
The Maoists did not focus on killing many security personnel. Instead they exhibited their ability to penetrate. They focused instead on causing damange to physical structures with bombs.
They perhaps wish to claim victory by saying they came, they hit, and they left at will. They are not trying to count their victory with the body count.
Obviously the king and his men are not doing much or anything. They are just sitting back, waiting. They assume the Maoists will not penetrate all the way to them.
This attack is a big reason for the state to not seek a military solution to the insurgency. For both sides. The state helplessly watched. The Maoists did not take over the town. The military stalemate continues. It is as if the king seeks just another round of confrontation. If he could think a few moves ahead like a chess player, he would opt for the politial solution quick.

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24 January