France Or South Africa

It has become fashionable to suggest Nepal is headed towards something close to a French revolution. And if the king were to continue down his "roadmap," a France-like upheaval can not be ruled out. Just look at some of his recent actions.

1. He refused to reciprocate the Maoist ceasefire.
   
2. He refused to acknowledge the 12 point agreement where the Maoists for the first time formally accepted a multi-party framework. He is incapable of political dialogue. He gives orders, and you follow. That is the only way he knows.
   
3. When he came back from his three week tour of the eastern districts, he promptly ordered Girija released as if to suggest he had nothing to do with the curfew or the mass arrests: he was out of town, how could he have! The guy is trying to insult your intelligence.
   
4. Girija's selective release was also his way of maybe trying to break up the seven party alliance. Obviously he does not know what that alliance is made out of. To the king democracy is Hebrew. It goes over his head.
   
5. He got the top 200 or so democracy leaders arrested. In his world, if you do that, the democracy movement stops. The people are children laid astray by these 200 bad apples. That is his way of insulting the people. The truth is what he did was he arrested all those top leaders who are still not sure if they want a republican setup or not. Now the uncompromising republican field workers are in charge. And they are very much at work.
   
6. The Maoists are stronger than ever, and they are closing in on Kathmandu itself. Their latest mass meeting was 60 miles from Kathmandu. Tens of thousands of people from many districts participated.
   
7. The European Union is inflamed. They are as angry as it is diplomatically possible.
   
8. The Indian ambassador has come out saying the people of Nepal are now squarely republican.
   
9. A revolution could install a parliament like during the French revolution. And that revolutionary parliament could do everything. It could wash the shore clean. It could end the monarchy, confiscate much of the king's property, commandeer the army, and so on.
   
10. I came out criticizing the 12 point agreement: 10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement, Prachanda Statement. Now I am beginning to think the agreement is complete as it is. A revolutionary House has to be set up. And the two armies have to be put under UN command before the country can decide what to do with them. Maybe they will both get dismantled.
    

But I keep thinking South Africa for the endgame, not France. Apartheid was an ugly thing, but Nelson Mandela negotiated its end rather beautifully. We should perhaps study that part of South African history. We should negotiate from a position of strength, but we should negotiate nevertheless. We have to prove non-violence and organization are more powerful tools than violence and chaos.

Much depends on the choices the king makes. But this is not a man in the dark. He has internet access also. And he is in command. He has to take responsibility.

We have to gather strength, and we have to stay in action, and we have to prepare for any eventuality, but our focus has to be on non-violence and rule of law. A revived House through a non-violent revolution through rule of law could do everything we might want done. Violence only gets in the way. This revolution does not need martyrs. This is 2006, not 1789. Back then people performed surgery without anesthetics. Times have changed.

A negotiated settlement asks for some give and take, but we can not compromise on democracy like Mandela never compromised on democracy.

Dipta Shaha and I are together working on an article. The idea is, why not suggest Krishna Prasad Bhattarai for interim Prime Minister? The monarchy would be retained, and that retention would stay as a guarantee with the Supreme Court. Everything else would go to a constituent assembly. And that new constitution may have a provision that says if 75% of the parliament wants the monarchy abolished, it may do so. I mean, if the monarchy does not even have a 25% popularity, why would it deserve to stick around, right?

The king is the one who has made sure these possibilities do not show up on the radar screen. We should perhaps toe the waters through some back channels and see what's up.

So I say, let's think South Africa, not France. France was too violent. We are fighting for democracy, not mob rule.

South Africa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
History of South Africa in the apartheid era - Wikipedia, the free ...
African History -- South Africa
South Africa: Ten Years After the End of Apartheid, Blacks Still ...
Nelson Mandela - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Amazon.com: Anatomy of a Miracle: The End of Apartheid and the ... Mandela and de Klerk are the men primarily responsible for South Africa's relatively peaceful transformation ..... South Africa avoided the bloody destiny history seemed to have assigned it ..... Instead of holding on to the bitter end, white South Africans under de Klerk's leadership acquiesced gracefully to democratic principles; instead of seeking revenge by replacing white oppression with their own, black South Africans under Mandela's leadership magnanimously forgave and moved on...... every critical step of apartheid's dismantling ...... the epic drama of South Africa's "negotiated revolution," the two prime opponents who came together to redesign the country, Nelson Mandela and F.W. de Klerk, are seen here as heroic figures-the one imprisoned for nearly 20 years, studying the nature of the Afrikaners, becoming fluent in their hated language and planning how to peacefully transfer power from the white minority to the black majority; the other a fierce defender of white minority rule, but pressed by the international ostracism that threatened to destroy the country's economy, and looking for a way to salvage it........ the political dilemmas as they moved toward difficult solutions ..... Accustomed to power from a childhood in a household on close terms with the tribal chief, he embodies in his magisterial presence what Waldmeir characterizes as the Africans' generosity of spirit and lack of vengefulness, that have made it possible for the white population to accept black rule....... the steps that moved de Klerk to free him: from the first halfhearted ones, which Mandela refused as compromises, to the five-year negotiations that brought about an agreement to share the power between them....... transformation from Apartheid and White Rule to One Man One Vote and Democracy ...... negotiating to end Apartheid...... a riveting account of the end of apartheid and the birth of democracy in a society that should be, by all rights, engaged in civil war at this time...... this incredibly complex real life drama.....
ARPA: Mandela and the Politics of Moral Capital ANC members, who feared that he might unilaterally make concessions on their key demands (as the government had been fruitlessly seeking for many years)....... Moral capital must be deployed strategically in combination with other political resources if it is to change the political outcome...... The transition in South Africa — from one of the world’s most brutal regimes, based on its repugnant racialist ideology, to democratic rule under a black majority government, with a relative minimum of white versus black violence — is one of the miracles of contemporary politics. ....... a generosity of spirit and an agility of mind that made the process of transition possible....... Around 1960 came a series of clashes, most infamously the Sharpeville massacre in 1960, when police killed 67 marchers....... The attempt by Mandela and others to organise a general strike was squashed with considerable violence. In the face of state violence and the closing off of all legal avenues of redress, the mood was becoming increasingly militant....... for several months he evaded the police, while speaking to rallies and meetings, and gaining a reputation as the ‘black pimpernel’....... In the 1980s, increasing civil disobedience in the townships and campaigns by black trade unions, as well as international pressure, led President Botha to declare a state of emergency....... The spectre of a huge and violent white against black conflict hung over the country...... there was a residual confidence in the National Party that they could, if not resist, then out-manoeuvre their inexperienced and potentially divided opponents......... the exiles were spread throughout the world, often isolated and homesick....... The best organised were the black trade unions, COSATU, led skilfully by Cyril Ramaphosa, which had accumulated great experience in the use of confrontation to negotiate particular demands — and all the while seeking to advance the larger struggle....... the military movement, the MK. .. often attacked by the South African military, and increasingly subject to internal divisions....... The ANC’s endorsement of the military strategy caused it to lose considerable international support in the West. ....... The already bloody conflicts between Inkatha and the ANC — fanned by support for Inkatha from the clandestine ‘Third Force’ of the South African security forces — intensified in the next few years into a civil war, with over 10,000 fatalities......... Despite this array of separate and potentially conflicting groups, over the next four years, the ANC achieved all that it wanted, and the National Party was eventually consigned to opposition and virtual irrelevance........the ANC national conference in 1991. There were differences based upon generations, the contrasting experiences of different groups’ struggles, and their established personal allegiances. ....... Many brief accounts of South Africa’s relatively peaceful transition from apartheid to democracy jump quickly from de Klerk’s announcement of February 1990 to Mandela’s election as president in April 1994. In fact it was a fascinating, uncertain, tortured period, punctuated by deadlocks and crises. There were constant tensions between ANC impatience and National Party intransigence, and a rhythm of inaction followed by some crisis that drove the process forward again.......... the political latitude some leaders gain through their moral stature to reshape institutions and take policy initiatives that generate new possibilities in times of transition and institutional fluidity. The most compelling example is Nelson Mandela and the end of apartheid.
Nelson Mandela's Address to ILO - 8 June 1990