The Maoists are going to have to make up their minds. If they declared their ceasefire for the illegitimate Gyanendra Shahi government, they need to act like it. On the other hand, if they did it so as to forge a stronger alliance with the democrats, they need to act like it too.
Their best bet is to work towards a solid eight party alliance.
I think it was a mistake the government did not reciprocate the ceasefire. But then 2/1 was also a mistake. This government had made endless mistakes. I am not surprised it made the mistake of not responding to the ceasefire. I would have been surprised if it had done the right thing.
It makes no sense for the Maoist republicans to hedge their bet on the goodwill of this regime.
The Maoists have already said they are for a democratic republic, and that they want to get there through a constituent assembly. Such a democratic republic will not have room for any party to have a standing army. The state will have an army and that is it.
Before the country goes through a constituent assembly, the Maoists will have to have disarmed. And they know that as well as you and I do.
So in agreeing to a democratic republic, and a constituent assembly, they have in effect said, yes, we will disarm.
The best way would have been for this royal regime to invite UN mediation. But I don't see that happening.
The Maoists insisting on UN mediation is like Girija insisting on House revival. Neither is about to happen. Because both strategies depend on the king's willingness to go for it, and he has made it absolutely clear he will not go for either.
So Girija and the Maoists need to face the reality.
The Maoists have to make a constituent assembly and a democratic republic possible by thinking of other ways of disarming.
I think the Maoists should take a serious look at my idea of a unilateral disarmament: Art Of War, Art Of Peace.
If UN mediation not be forthcoming, that idea might be the fastest way to a democratic republic.
Mohi magne dhungro lukaune garna bhayena.
The Maoists don't have the option to play games. Geopolitics don't allow for games.
I don't think the Maoists are trying to. But I do think there are hardliners among the Maoists who are hard to convince. And there might be plain inefficiency, a case of not being able to do exactly what they intend. And there is the relentless state offensive. So they don't have as many options. They are not in an easy situation themselves.
But the Maoists have been mum for a while. There have not been statements from them in a little while.
I hope they will take the best option they have: a unilateral disarmament that leads to a strong eight party alliance for a democratic republic, so there is a total bi-polarization in the country. That bi-polarization will hasten the demise of this regime like nothing else might.
I don't believe the Maoists declared their ceasefire intending to play games. They waited for a week. They became convinced the royal regime was not going to reciprocate. So they thought, if the regime is not interested in peace, and the seven parties are not going to launch a movement to get rid of the regime, then what options do they have except to prepare for another round of fighting to tire out the regime?
The flaw in that thinking is to assume the seven parties are not going to dislodge the regime. The seven parties are about to wage a decisive movement. This regime has only a few months left.
But if the Maoists wage another round of civil war, they mess things up for the very movement that will dislodge the regime. Why will the Maoists do such a thing? Why will they do anything that might prolong the life of this illegitimate regime?
So they should preferably think in terms of a unilateral disarmament. And if they can not do that, they have to extend the ceasefire. If they do extend the ceasefire, the movement has more breathing room. The movement dislodges the regime, and a democratic interim government is formed. That governemnt will take the UN mediation route, if necessary. If that's what the Maoists want. But then that also means there will be no eight party alliance.
A solid eight party alliance is the best, quickest way to a democratic republic. A seven party alliance can also do it as long the Maoists do not wage another round of civil war.
..... statement of Prachanda declaring ceasefire, which came unexpectedly
..... The Maoists also did not respect their own commitment.
..... been involved in killing of civilians, crossfire, abduction, targeting of schools, beatings and incidents of loots.
..... A total of 4 civilians have been killed by the Maoists whereas they have abducted 8057 persons, most of them being students and teachers.
..... targeted schools in at least 9 districts including Jhapa, Argakhanchi, Morang, Jumla etc
..... Maoists also were found of beating civilians, students and even human rights defenders
..... even looted a sum of rupees 6,00,000 which was to be distributed among community schools in Taplejung district.
..... looted the house of one person in Ramechhap
..... threatened different industries, businessmen, government employees, schools and NGOs to pay tax, stop functioning in Jhapa, Kavre, Morang, Kaski, Dailekh and Surkhet districts.
..... continuing their activity of detaining people in their 'labor camp'.
..... at least 90 Maoists have reportedly surrendered to the government
..... the government has increased its activity of searching villages, arresting citizens and disappearing them. The security persons are even seen of carrying out extra judicial killings.
..... endangered the durability of the unilateral ceasefire of the Maoists.
..... security persons have killed 29 people during the first month of ceasefire mostly in acquisition of being Maoists. They have also arrested at least 106 persons from 25 districts in allegation of being Maoists. Even civilians have been injured in the landmine explosion planted by the RNA. They even beat civilians for no reason in Ilam and Surkhet districts while carrying out search operations.
.... Maoists’ unilateral ceasefire, which brought rays of hope for sustainable peace amongst the Nepalese people, seems in the verge of breakdown following the activities of the government. It is a very high time for the government to response it by reciprocating the ceasefire so as to create conducive environment for peaceful resolution of the problem.
...... the Maoists should create favorable environment where the movement of political parties could be taken to the villages, which has not been seen in the first month of the unilateral ceasefire.
...... government has stimulated the violent activities in the name of anti-terrorist operations.
[PDF] ONE MONTH OF CEASEFIRE File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
ONE MONTH OF CEASEFIRE. An Assessment of Human Rights Situation during the ...
Human Rights organizations including INSEC and HRERLC, ...
www.inseconline.org/download/Ceasefire%20.pdf -
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