Badri Mandal: Winner

The King's February 2006, April 2007 Offensive

The seven party alliance will not be an alliance.

It will not do what it takes to launch a revolution.

It will not do what it takes to launch a movement.

Which leaves room for a negotiated settlement. But that asks for dialogue.

But if the Monarchists act unreasonable, forging an alliance with the Maoists is an option. But that also asks for dialogue.

Dialogue is political work.

The Maoists will not do what it takes to for forge a strong alliance with the democrats.

They continue to think of another military offensive as an option. And if they prepare for that, that weakens the possibilities of an alliance with the democrats. And if they can not forge an alliance with the democrats, what are their chances for a soft landing?

So the Maoist-democrat alliance is nowhere close to gelling.

The seven party alliance is in disarray.

Girija's House revival stance is the litmus test. As long as he still holds that position, the seven party alliance will continue to be in disarray.

The February 2006 elections for the towns and cities that the king has announced, and the April 2007 parliamentary polls. That is a political challege to the seven parties, and a military challenge to the Maoists.

Hopefully the Maoists have weakened. But if they have not, and there is no telling, and even if they make bungled attempts at disruption, that will still be bloodshed that could have been avoided. And if there is bloodshed, there will be a new gap of trust between the Maoists and the democrats.

But the election announcements might gradually erode some of the international support for the democrats. They have wasted too much time so far this year. They let months pass.

Especially if international observers are allowed - first they said they will be allowed, then Tulsi Giri came out saying they will not be allowed - then the parties are going to come under additional pressure.

And Girija is going to keep parroting the House revival mantra.

And Badri Mandal's Sadbhavana and Pashupati Rana's RPP are going to contest elections. And they are going to win 30 mayoral seats each roughly.

Gajendra Narayan Singh could not have seen this coming.

Considering the parties have been allowed to function more or less at normal, there is no outright persecution, the parties will face additional pressure.

All because there is this refusal to do political homework.

Genius Girija.

If the king could revive the House, that would make null and void the Prime Minister's prerogative to dissolve the House. That would go against the norms of a parliamentary democracy.

The democrats were trapped between the Monarchists and the Maoists, now they are trapped between February 2006 and April 2007 also.

Does the seven party alliance ever hold meetings?

Needed: a goal and an action plan.

Or maybe there is an Article 127 in the Nepali Congress constitution that we could use to revive the House, and Girija would be happy, and the rest of us could move on.