The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

Mausi Bhi Taiyar, Basanti Bhi Taiyar

Looks to me like both the king and the Maoists might be coming around to the agenda of the seven political parties: (1) revive parliament, (2) all-party government, (3) unconditional peace talks with the Maoists, and (4) constituent assembly.

Gaon walon, mausi bhi taiyar hai, Basanti bhi taiyar hai, marna cancel!

For the first time since 2/1 I see peace on the horizon.

Homework time. The parties need to talk to the king. The king should not wait for the street protests to gather momentum. These seven parties are over 95% of the weight of the to-be revived parliament. That is people power. People already voted. They do not have to come out into the streets.

Message To G2: The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

G2: Girija, Gyanendra.

Just when things are looking a little better, one has to stay cautious. The ground situation has not changed all that much. And things can always go downhill.

Others are welcome to make their own intelligent guesses, but if I had to guess, I would say the lake is right now at 36 degrees. If the king comes forth and agrees to reviving the parliament, the temperature goes up to 38. If Girija does not play foul and sticks to the common minimum program, the temperature goes up to 40. If the Maoists play ball and get together for a constituent assembly by totally disarming, and peace returns for good, the lake is at 42 degrees. That is comfy.

But 42 is still a country with abject poverty, where a majority are hungry every single day. The water is still very cold.

On the other hand, if the king frustrates the parties and the street agitators, the temperature goes down to 35. If the king further clamps down, say if there are hints of military rule, the temperature goes down to 34. If the Maoists step up their attacks, the temperature goes down to 33.

The thing about 33 is, for the onlookers, it is like water is still moving, you still see ripples and waves. The yes men around the king will keep insisting they still see ripples and waves. And so many end up thinking the temperature is further away from 32 than it actually is. Batista did not see it coming in Cuba.

I have been following the RNA military moves since 2/1. They are fundamentally deficient. They misunderstand the very nature of the war, even the military aspect of it. Most of the army top brass are physically unfit. These are not people who rose up from the ranks. The inherent nepotism that has kept the Shahas, Ranas and Thapas at the helm has not allowed for a whole lot of meritocracy. The universal human desire for money and power coupled with the monopoly the top generals sought and got has led to a whole lot of groupthink.

It would be erroneous to compare RNA's 100,000 men to the Maoists' 12,000 or however many there are. If the RNA were to engage in a traditional war with the Maoists for a little over a month, they end up an army with guns but no bullets. And the Maoists do not have to butcher 100,000 men to capture Singha Durbar. They are not fighting a traditional war.

If the temperature were to get down to 33, they might engineer a few "events." Bin Laden calls them "spectacular," Prachanda calls them "catastrophe." The impact is primarily psychological.

At 32, the lake freezes zipzap. At that point, if Nepal is lucky, Prachanda is more like Fidel Castro. If Nepal is unlucky, the guy is the Nepali Pol Pot.

Look at how Castro marched into Havana. There was not much bloodshed at all.

That is what we are looking at.

Congressia Madhesias

The Nepali Congress has got to be my least favorite political party in all of Nepal. They messed up the 1990s. They let down the high hopes generated by the 1990 movement. They became the new status quo. They thwarted genuine aspirations of the Madhesis and the Janajatis. They turned democracy into a circus. They institutionalized corruption. They hounded smaller parties.

Their track record leaves much to be asked for.

On the other hand, if the Madhesis inside the Congress were to get more assertive, that could herald a fundamental social transformation of the party.

Look at someone like Ram Baran Yadav. He is a medical doctor. That does not necessarily make him the smartest kid on the block. But that does mean he has read a few books. He is a Yadav. That works for great electoral arithmetic in the Terai. Someone like him should be aspiring for the leadership position within the party.

Bimalendra Nidhi might have taken the jump. He has not played second fiddle within the Nepali Congress (D).

Raju Ban Gaya Gentleman

When an all-party government is formed, I see Rajendra Mahto as one of the ministers. Tripathy and Mahto from the Sadbhavana.

Ever since 2/1 Mahto has been generous to me with his time over the phone. I have interviewed him. I have asked him for phone numbers of other leaders I needed to talk to. I have sought his opinions. I have sought clarifications from him on statements made by the parties. But that is not the reason.

Mahto is a major emerging political talent on the national scene. His district Sarlahi is one of the Sadbhavana bastions on par with Nawalparasi and Morang. He is very easy to talk to, as in "sweet," as one of his constituents once described him to me a long time ago. But he is also resolute, and capable of taking firm stands when need be.

He has been a boon to the democratic movement.