Baburam: Prachanda's Best Bet, Litmust Test, And Only Option

Prachanda's recent mistreatment of Baburam shows the Maoist party is a dictatorial organization that allows no dissent in opinion. Worse, it shows the Maoists are not capable of a transformation that will allow them a soft landing so they could become one of the largest parties within a democratic, progressive multi-party framework.

My beeline to the Maoists has always been based on the past positions of the Maoists themselves. In recent memory it is the Maoists who have brought forth the idea of a Constituent Assembly. Noone else was talking about it. Even now most others are not. So when I talk Constituent Assembly, I am borrowing a Maoist line.

Let's assume the Maoists mean it when they say Constituent Assembly, that it is not a tactical move to their ultimate goal of a communist dictatorship. The thing is, they are not in any position to make any such tactical move. They are not going to be able to fool anyone even if they tried.

So the Maoists better mean it when they say Constituent Assembly. The last, recent, nationwide, scientific polls (What The People Feel by Krishna Hachhethu) conducted show the majority of Nepalis want to retain a Constitutional Monarchy. So if you are for a Constituent Assembly, you pretty much are going to agree to the verdict of this poll. Which means, the Maoists are going to have to come around to the idea of a Constitutional Monarcy. Now. The polls also show overwhelming support for a multi-party democracy. There is minuscule support for an absolute monarchy, and even less for a communist dictatorship.

So if you are for a Constituent Assembly, Prachanda, you are basically saying you are for (1) Constitutional Monarchy, and (2) Multi-Party Democracy. That is not me putting words in your mouth. That is me hearing you right. That is if you are being honest when you say you are for a Constituent Assembly.

And if you are for a multi-party democracy, you basically are agreeing to move away from the central organizing principle of your organization, that power flows through the barrel of a gun. You and your team are going to have to revise your ideology, and come up with something new: Power flows through the ballot box.

That ideological shift will have to be made. And the person among your ranks best able to do it will be Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. So you need to release Baburam from "protective custody" and discontinue the "purification" operation you are subjecting him to, and stop blaming him for your recent military defeats. He is not the reason for the tough times you are going through.

That will be your litmus test. If you can not treat Baburam right, forget teaming up with the democrats. Not going to happen.

But then Constitutional Monarchy can mean many different things. If you allow a progressive transformation of your organization, you will become a major force that makes sure the Constitutional Monarchy gets devoid of all political power.

I have been circulating this proposed constitution, and I hope to get back on my phone marathons soon, faxing people around, emailing. This document is a broad framework. All political players on stage, including you, are being encouraged to give your feedback and criticism. What do you like? What do you not like? This is already the most progressive of any constitution I know on the face of the planet. It can be made more so, with your participation and help.

But first, release Baburam. And both of you get down to work.

Or you could continue down the track you are on. That path leads to the Gonzalo fate for you. The noose has been tightening around you. It might actually end up being worse for you. Because if the progressive transformation is achieved without your participation, your political and social thunder will already have been stolen, and the democrats, all of whom are mighty angry at you in the first place, will not feel any need to collaborate with you. Basically what I am saying is you are under tremendous time pressure.

Option 1 leads to you possibly becoming a Deputy Prime Minister in an interim government. If you can fundamentally transform all your cadres for work for peaceful organization and party building, heck, you could even become Prime Minister on your own after elections.

Option 2 leads to oblivion and worse. Even with a military takeover of the country - totally impossible - you will not be able to offer the Nepali people anything better or more than this progressive constitution will be able to. So why not skip a few steps, and make sure you are still politically relevant in 2015!

I guess the choice for you is between history and hell. Get Baburam out and get him working and get into the history books. That is what I suggest.

This is what I see happening:

1. You ideologically transform yourself to the point the central dictum of your organization is Power Flows Through The Ballot Box within a framework of this progressive constitution. Then nothing prevents a partnership between your organization and the democrats. But the transformation comes first.
   
2. Both you and Baburam get berths in an interim government.
   
3. You disarm all your cadres, and retrain them to become the best organizers of any party in the country to see if you can become the largest party. I think it possible.
   
4. No, they are not going into the army, instead the army itself is to be downsized so there is more money for education and health. Instead of getting salaries from the army, your workers should seek to get their salaries as elected officials.
   
5. Funny. If you become Prime Minister, you find yourself Commander-In-Chief!