Phone Marathon: Called Up Delhi

I just got off the phone. I got to talk to Rajendra Mahto, Dinesh Prasain, and Amresh Singh extensively, and the last person I called was Ram Baran Yadav: I woke him up; that is when I realized it was time to get off the phone and end the marathon. I hope to call up Sujata Koirala, Krishna Sitoula and Ram Baran Yadav, perhaps tomorrow. I also got a number for the supposed Maoist top honcho in Delhi, Laxman Pant, but the first call did not go through.

Rajendra Mahto continued with the themes he raised during my last conversation. He said big change, not compromise is what is needed. "Ye aar ki paar ki ladai hai." As long as the king is there, there will be no stability, there will be false nationalism, there will not be room for the emergence of leadership from the ground, and things will stay bad for the Madhesis. The democrats have unprecedented global support.

A full-fledged democracy, a republican framework, a federal system is the way to go. Elections for a Constituent Assembly organized by the king will only entrench him, if he ever agrees to such elections. The monarchy and the army can not be trusted to conduct free and fair elections. Even an all-party government operating in the shadow of the palace-military complex will not be able to conduct free and fair elections. The army is with the king. He has the money. He will spend crores to push the results his way. The elections for a Constituent Assembly can only be held after the king has been pushed out. Otherwise the king and the army, if they do not succeed in swaying the election results, will simply trample the outcome and go back to being in and staying in power. All those thousands who have died will have died in vain. There can be no Constituent Assembly elections without first defanging the king.

It is time to keep it simple and keep it direct. The goal is a Democratic Republic. The king is the root of all problems. Right after 1990 conspiracies started. In the older generation, there is overwhelming Pahadi domination. They do not want to get rid of the monarchy. They want to rule in his name instead. The older generation Pahadis think if they get rid of the monarchy, the Madhesis will get more assertive, maybe India will take over. That is their paranoia.

India has been very positive.

The RPP is for the king. The Mandal faction is for the king. Deuba is for the king. A lot of UML folks are for the king. Most of the Central Committe people of the Nepali Congress are for the king. A lot of the Sadbhavana folks are for the king.

Soon there will be but two factions left in Nepal, those who are for autocracy, and those who are for democracy. All the parties might get swept away. And the Maoists might have an important role to play.

If Koirala goes Republican, it will take less than a year to get there. If not, a new force will emerge. And it will take 1-2 years. UML and Deuba are already over. The rest might also get washed out in 1-2 years.

Within 1-2 days we expect a clear verdict from Girija.

A Loktantric Madhesi Morcha could emerge.

These Congressias are not big on the republican agenda. BP Koirala is on record saying that his neck is tied with that of the king.

Mahara calls once in a while, but he never gives out his phone number, Mahto said. Tripathy is no longer in Delhi. He has gone to some border town nearer his home in Nawalparasi.

Dinesh Prasain said he was getting a lot of help from his "lawyer friends" in Delhi. That included living space and "protection." They have a network that they can mobilize if need be. There are a lot of political friends from Nepal who are now in Delhi.

There were threats to Prasain's life even before 2/1. Some ambassadors went to meet some of the army top brass and warned them explicitly. And the threat subsided. But it was never totally averted. And there is only so much even the diplomants can do. The waters are murky.

He also broached the idea of launching a magazine, kind of like Himal South Asia, which would be both online and offline. To deal with regional issues in a progressive way. Turn into a world class publication. The discussion has been going on. 60-70 names have already been floated. There would be news, opinion and analysis. The tempo has to be local to regional to local.

There has been a sea change in Nepal in the perception of those who talk of Madhesi rights. They used to be labelled as "communal," but now they are seen as people for progressive change.

The number one issue is to get the army under the parliament. Without that all change will be but cosmetic.

The radical of the political elements are exiled or are in Nepal and underground. Those not considered such major threats to the regime are openly in Kathmandu, like people like Ram Sharan Mahat. Otherwise there is an emerging consensus for the Constituent Assembly idea and a Republican agenda.

Overall there is broad support, also in South Block.

The only concern is that there should not be chaos, no security disaster. But if the political change can be managed, the South Block is not averse to the idea of a republic for Nepal. As long as the change is managed and not mindless.

Ultimately got to return to Nepal. Prasain asked me when I was coming "back" to Nepal. I said in terms of money, message, organization and discussions, geographical locations do not matter. But that I had no plans to "return" to Nepal for good. That I was a global citizen!

We are not limited by the 5 or 7 parties in our goals. There are intense polarizations going on inside all of those parties. Even if all 5 parties go for the king that does not mean the king stays. There might be an emergent generational tide against the monarchy. The leadership of the parties tend to take their party hostage, and so they often overrule grass roots sentiments in the process. But for how long?

Girija is 82. "Tyo bhanchine manchhe ho, bangine manchhe hoina." He smokes.

The internet is playing a major role. Even the king said once the whole world is only a click away, though I doubt he has clicked that mouse more than once.

There are many people here. Hari Rocca, Amresh Singh, Samtengla, Anil Bhattarai, Prashant Jha, Biraj Bishta. Samtengla was always smart, but he has also fast emerged a major intellectual.
We have been in regular touch with student leaders who are feverishly active in Nepal. Prasain said he helped draft Gagan Thapa's now-famous statement. Prasain gave me Thapa's email address.

I also got to talk to Amresh Singh. He is from Sarlahi, currently working towards a PhD at JNU in International Relations. He has the famous SD Muni for Advisor. He used to teach Chemistry at Ascol in Kathmandu, but now he is into political stuff. He has focused on ethnic issues, and has been widely published. I suggested he publish stuff online because I know many Madhesis in the US who would love to have access to the kind of writings he seemed to be putting out.

Amreshji told me Nepali Times columnist CK Lal knows my name. I was much flattered, because I am a huge CK Lal fan. He also told me that the king in person explicitly told CK Lal to not write about the Madhesi cause.

The leaders are not for change. They want the status quo. They only fight for power. They want to keep the king. There is no clear agenda from the parties yet. And people have been reduced to being silent spectators. And foreigners wonder why people are not pouring out into the streets. But there is going to be a big surprise down the line. A new generation has been emerging.

The king can not be kicked out by the Maoists, that is for sure. But 2/1 has been like an appetizer. The big democratic feast is on the way. And Madhesis will get a "lift."

The first goal has to be to go Republican. The second goal has to be for a Constituent Assembly. But one has to be wary of the Maoists. They are only paying lip service to the multi-party idea. To them it is a tactical move.

Nepal is India-locked, not land-locked.

King Birendra said he will never send the army after the Maoists. And the Maoists only attacked the political parties. Was that a working unity between the two?

Not long after that I woke up Dr. Ram Baran Yadav without meaning to. I apologized, and hung up, saying I will call later.

In The News

• Nepal's ex-PM 'won't join rebels' CNN International ... categorically dismissed speculations that his party could form a strategic alliance with the Maoists .... "Until they (the Maoists) lay down their arms, there is no question of us working with them or forming an alliance with them" .... the royalist government has progressively relaxed restrictions amid intense international pressure
• Nepal ex-PM challenges emergency BBC News ...party would continue peaceful protests against the seizure of power .... demanded the restoration of fundamental rights and asked for the release of all those detained after the royal takeover .... He called for the creation of an all-party government to hold peace talks with Maoist rebels...... called on his party workers to join a "satyagraha" ..... Koirala said his party was committed to constitutional monarchy in the country despite the recent political upheavals .... hinted that things would not remain the same if the king continued to usurp people's fundamental rights ..... reinstating parliament was the only way of resolving the current political impasse
  
• Crisis in our backyard Delhi Pioneer "when Nepal needs military equipment, we are free to receive them from any country...... Now that China has entered in the fray, the US cannot exert much pressure. Even when it exerted pressure on China to not supply nuclear missiles to Pakistan, China did it clandestinely and went on denying the US claims..... Around 50 lakh Nepalis live in India..... increasing anti-India sentiment in the establishment and academia ..... India's heart bled profusely over the loss of democracy in Nepal .... when we too face the Maoist threat in around half-a-dozen states ..... CPM polit-bureau member Sita Ram Yechuri has said "if the Maoists want to restore democracy, we are willing to show solidarity with them."
  
• 10 anti-gov't guerrillas killed in Nepal Xinhua, China
• Who'll Blink First? Political parties still believe in a constitutional monarchy, they want to give the king a face-saving way out, but they aren't in a position to be of any help..... The Nepali people are confused. The security forces were supposed to be chasing Maoists, but if there have been any major victories the army is not boasting about them. In fact, security forces had their hands full in thepast two months putting down pro-democracy rallies, keeping politicians in detention, enforcing censorship and intimidating the media. The people may want to give the king a chance, but the longer this drags on the more they will see February First for what it really was.
• Sharad Chandra Shaha in Bangkok When questioned about bloggers in Nepal bypassing censorship, Shaha said he was unaware of it. He said there would be no crackdown against Nepal’s bold bloggers, which include www.blog.com.np and freenepal.blogspot.com. “They are free to do it. All you have to do is put it on the Internet and send it, right? What is the problem?” Shaha said. He defended media censorship, saying papers were exaggerating Maoists attacks and making them “sound as if they are larger than life”. He added: “You are from the press and you probably don’t like it but to some extent, a little bit of control of the press has seen to this problem.”
• Will History Repeat Itself In Nepal? By Avantika Regmi .... The current situation in Nepal bears a striking similarity with the socioeconomic and political situation of France in 1789, at the beginning of the French revolution ..... In 1950, in his book Whither Nepal, my grandfather, a revolutionary of his time, described the Nepali aristocrats thus: “Nepal’s aristocracy is a blood sucking vampire, and a lording wolf. Outside the fold of these aristocrats there may not be even one hundred people socially and economically prosperous as they are…the aristocrats are alone one hundred and fifty, such is the concentration of wealth.” ...... a whopping 80 percent of the total population, are socioeconomically still where they were centuries before ...... According to the World Bank by 1991, 5 percent of the landed Nepalese owned 40 percent of the cultivated land. 8 out of 20 million peasants had no land and were severely impoverished. Nepal ranks amongst the worlds lowest in every human development aspect..... the rulers are confronting the problem only by labeling them - ‘Terrorists’. If they are indeed such, then I dare say there are 20 million potential terrorists ...... no jobs, no land and no promising future ...... Nepalese peasantry meanwhile continues to remain as impoverished as those of 18th century France ..... after his enthronement in 2002, he declared, “Under the circumstances, we have come to recognize that our enthronement was something preordained.” ...... there is time to bring both the parties to the negotiating table and avert the worst, if only the international community can get its act together fast
• Dalits Of Nepal Dalits are 20% of the population, Janajatis are 37%. Tharu 6.7%, Chhetri 18%, Bramhin 12.7%, Yadav 3.9%, Magar/Bhujel 8.6%, Tamang/Sherpa 6.3%. There are 10 districts in which Dalits can win elections on their own. There has been only one Dalit MP in Nepali history. 80% of the Dalit population is below the poverty line. 70% of the Dalits are malnourished. Dalits face 205 different kinds of discrimination.
  
• Anarchy Brought By Monarchy by Avantika Regmi “King Gyanendra and Prince Paras - the architects of anarchy of the monarchy in Nepal” ....His gameplan was to first bring peace, (ostensibly by defeating the Maoists militarily) and then the atmosphere would automatically become conducive for elections at the end of which multi-party democracy would return...... Gyanendra does not seem to have any real intention to bring peace for the purpose of holding elections. ..... the King in June 2004 issued a deadline to the political parties to come up with a ‘consesus canditate with a ‘clean image.’ When they did not respond, an advertisement was issued which asked potential PM canditates to file a petition and submit it at the royal palace gate...... All along the real motives of King Gyanendra had been to restart autocratic monarchy....... the Maoists of Nepal are fighting a political battle and are not the only terrorizing force .... closure of the Tibetan Refugee Welfare Office that had been operating for decades ..... During 2004, violence related to the rebellion cost an estimated 2,380 lives, including those of 209 members of Nepal’s police services, 240 soldiers, 1,457 Maoists and 474 civilians, according to the U. S. State Department.... anarchy being promoted by the state, whose autocratic head is the monarch ..... for the 12 years (1990 to Oct 2, 2002) that democracy functioned, (mostly ruled by the Nepali Congress) instead of governance we saw intra-party and inter-party squabbling, breaking of parties into factions, ‘politicization of the state institutions and government bureaucracy’, cronyism and nepotism; and institutionalized corruption. In those 12 years Nepal saw: K. P. Bhattarai (2 times), Girija Prasad Koirala (3 times), Manmohan Adhikari (1 time), Surya Bahadur Thapa (1 time) Lokendra Bahadhur Chand (1 time), Deuba (2 times) taking turns as PMs, i.e. we had regime change 11 times in 12 years ..... when the Maoist conflict was at its infancy, both G. P. Koirala and K. P. Bhattarai did not try for a peaceful resolution to this political problem ....... Bhattarai in his swearing ceremony as the PM on April 1998 announced that his priority was to end the Maoist insurgency. This was re-iterated by Koirala when he succeeded him. Both believed solution only through bullets. The official figure of the total deaths under the Koirala government (April 1998-May 1999) was 596 (457 as the result of police action). In Bhattarai’s 11 month tenure 420 people were killed...... Operation Romeo and later was conducted in the mid-western hills. They treated everyone as a potential Maoist and many innocent people were arrested, ill-treated, tortured and Operation Kilo Sierrakilled almost randomly .....dealing with the Maoist problem without any real understanding of the ground reality ..... Maoists are no better than the RNA under King Gyanendra as has been shown by the atrocities they have committed: killing and torturing suspected informers, army and policemen; kidnapping and forceful recruitment of children; looting and bombing of government and properties of those identified as class enemies and many other heinous human rights violations....... “more than one-third of Nepal’s 3,900 village development committee buildings have been destroyed, 19 districts are without telephone service, 250 post offices have been ruined and six airports have been closed.” ...... The three main players in Nepal have brought anarchy and are maintaing it to further their own agenda. .... The King believes that if anarchy continues the country would have no recourse but to stand behind him. Those who are not with him will be militarily eliminated....... One only saw a democratisation of corruption. Instead of hundreds we had thousands pilfering the state. After the King usurped power instead of a short duration decisive campaign they conducted a prolonged and weak campaign often bringing hardship to the common in the process...... The situation as it stands today can lead Nepal down 4 distinct paths of which the first 3 will lead to bloodletting. Path 1: King Gyanendra vanquishes the Maoists. Path 2: Maoists defeat King Gyanendra. Path 3: The status quo continues forever. Path 4: Peaceful resolution and democracy restored...... Path 4 is the sane one, but the million dollar question is who will bell the two cats: King Gyanendra (RNA) and the Maoists......a tripartite agreement among the three players and stationing of an international peace keeping force that disarms the Maoists, sends the RNA back to the barracks and creates a peaceful atmosphere to conduct elections in a time-bound manner. The elections should provide the three parties to test their support in Nepal.
• 2005 UN Commission On Human Rights ..... adopt a strong resolution establishing a Special Rapporteur on Nepal and ensuring a strong international human rights monitoring presence in the country ...... “Nepal is a test case to measure the Commission’s willingness and ability to tackle human rights crises. Failure to act decisively will prove that not only do power politics prevent the consideration of serious human rights violations in large countries, but that the members of the Commission are incapable of acting to prevent a human rights disaster in any country.”...... Now, as countries large and small erode them in the name of security, the Commission must urgently act to preserve its own legacy .....“Reform must be geared towards ensuring that the UN’s human rights machinery can effectively deal with country situations, and retain its ability to name and shame countries with serious human rights violations” .... “Human rights abuses must be tackled whenever and wherever they arise — regardless of political interests.” .....