Nepali Maoists And The US Perspective

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

The official US perspective on the Nepali Maoists has been that these are people who intend to turn Nepal into a Cambodia. I think that perspective is as out of the whack as the Nepali right wing false-nationalist perspective that India wants to turn Nepal into a Sikkim. But then a friend of mine said the same thing at the online forum Sajha, that it is naïve to assume the Maoists want anything less than a communist dictatorship, and that the only way to deal with them was to defeat them militarily. I said in response, it is entirely possible you are right and I am wrong, but I hope you are wrong, because your perspective leads to a whole bunch of bloodshed in the country.

It is not like 280 million Americans or a billion Indians feel one way or the other about Nepal. I would bet most Americans have never heard of Nepal. It is usually a small desk at the State Department or the Foreign Ministry that speaks on behalf of their respective countries. And I can imagine the career professionals in the US foreign policy establishment whose job it is to think of Nepal might have read heavily into Russian communism of the 1930s, the Chinese communism of the 1960s, and into Peru and Cambodia, to do the best job they can. But, I fear, that approach is too bookish. One can not claim to understand American politics solely by reading into British politics, even though both countries are English speaking, and very close to each other, and the American Democrats are like the British Labor, the Republicans are like the Conservatives.

To me it is not about ideology, it is about peace at the earliest. It is hard to discern ideology in the Nepali context since all the ideologies have been of the imported kind. Are the Maoists communists? Are the UML? Are the Congress people socialists as they claim, and if they are, why have they been like the Republicans in the US in terms of their appeal to the upper income brackets in the Nepali towns and villages? When you mix the imported ideologies to Nepal’s specific socio-economic conditions, you get interesting cocktails. And it is misleading to read only into ideology. Ethnic grievances have been as much a reason for the insurgency as the poverty in the country as the Maoist ideology.

The desk officers of countries like the US and India that think it okay to meddle in small countries like Nepal almost always tend to stay close to the perspective of the existing power structure. That way they get to feel good about themselves, as if to suggest they might be propping up the monarchy in Nepal, when the truth is Nepal’s monarchy stands for historical reasons, and is in many ways a rather archaic, autocratic institution. So it happens that King George was not good enough for America but King Gyanendra is good enough for Nepal. When your ability to impact the ground situation is minimal, stay close to “reality” and claim it as your creation!

There are three power blocks in Nepal right now: the Monarchists, the Maoists, and the democrats. The Monarchists are the strongest, the democrats happen to be in the weakest position. Each camp has hardliners. The Monarchist hardliners would prefer a low intensity, indefinite warfare with the Maoists, for that keeps them relevant. Those are the people who foiled the last serious peace talks the Maoists were part of. I am sure there are Maoist hardliners who do have Cambodia in mind. And each political party has its own set of hardliners who constantly get in the way of a common minimum program. A black and white demarcation is simplistic and will not bring forth peace. Peace will be made in the gray zone.

Political engagement is the best way to peace at the earliest. So when the Maoists demand international monitoring of human rights, I say take it! When they ask for UN mediation, I say go for it! When they demand an all-party government and a Constituent Assembly as a precondition to laying down arms, I say why hold back! But then, it is around that time you realize it is not the Maoists, but the Monarchists that stand in the way of peace and progress. Because the Monarchists will not allow international monitoring, or the UN, or a Constituent Assembly, because each of those options leads to putting the Monarchists back into the cage.

The weakest power block, the democrats, are the ones who hold the key. It is the democrats that will tip the balance of power. As soon as the democrats come around to a common minimum program of an all-party interim government and a Constituent Assembly, the civil war comes to an end, because at that point it becomes very hard for the Monarchists to keep on keeping on. And if they keep on keeping on, the democrats ought to revise the CMP and go for a Democratic Republic. So it is for the democrats to get down to doing their homework as supposedly the most responsible of the three blocks.

In The News

• Maoists are not interested in talks: US envoy Money Plans, India "Since September, the Maoists have had reasonable offers to come to the table to talk and their response has been nonsensical. Initially, it was 'We'll only talk to the king'. Then, 'Maybe we'll talk if the government responds to (our) legitimate questions (whether it controlled the army and was not under the king)," the US ambassador told IANS...... Despite increasing propaganda by the government-owned media that the rebels are weakening due to fighting between their top leaders, Moriarty feels the insurgents represent a threat that could turn Nepal into a "poor man's Cambodia"...... "I don't think any of us has enough insights into what exactly the Maoists are doing and thinking to say with any degree of certainty that ... the tide has turned against them" ...... "The threat they represent is terrific. They have talked about collectivisation of agriculture repeatedly, about re-education of enemies, about expanding the 'revolution' - all this is basically a formula for an absolutely terrific totalitarian state in Nepal that also threatens the stability of the entire region." ...... "(Differences are) not uncommon among totalitarian parties. When factionalism arises, the top dog crushes the other faction or gets replaced as the top dog. Perhaps you end up with a more brutal and more unified party." ..... Given a choice between the communist rebels and a king who has repeatedly overstepped his constitutional authority, Washington would unhesitatingly support the latter ...... as of Jan 31, Nepal didn't really have a functioning multi-party democracy, it had a multi-party government ...... there has to be reconciliation between the king and the political parties .... It's not a question of one side or the other taking the lead but two sides agreeing on a common programme..... "We'll be manufacturing these items in the next couple of months. Once we finish manufacturing them, we've to decide what to do with them. If there is progress, we'll go ahead and ship them. If there hasn't been, there will be a lot of pressure not to ship them." ...... Instead of a tough draft that doesn't change the situation on the ground, we would like to see enough progress on the ground so that the international community can focus on how to help Nepal...... "We all assumed there would be an increasing culture of impunity (after Feb 1) but that hasn't happened so far... The army is clearly getting more aggressive in investigating allegations of abuse. I have raised specific cases of abuse and the army has gone out and investigated them in a serious fashion...... "If people know they will be tried and if convicted, will spend years in jail, they become much more reluctant to commit abuses... I am not aware of a single Maoist who has been convicted of abuses by a Maoist court...... the National Human Rights Commission says they are getting much better access to detainees. I feel uncomfortable saying this - people will say I am an apologist - but I am looking at facts on the ground
• China Festival to be held in Nepal People's Daily Online, China A seven-day China Festival will be held in Kathmandu to mark the Golden Jubilee of the establishment of Nepal-China diplomatic relations ..... performance of arts, film festival, food festival, exhibition of handicrafts, books, kites, photos and relics as well as trade fair with household goods, electronic goods, automobiles and information technology ..... more than 100,000 people are expected to watch the programs ..... China Trade Fair, seminars, exchange of delegations and free health camps
• NEPAL: Interview with Susan Ulbaek, Danish Ministry of Foreign ... Reuters AlertNet, UK Susan Ulbaek, head of the Asia Department at the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs ..... Denmark spent US $40 million on development projects in the health, education, energy and human rights sectors in 2004..... We want to see a democratisation process restored through peace..... The Danish government has decided not to enter into any project or programme agreements with the Nepalese authorities.... Democracy cannot be safeguarded by excluding legitimate democratic forces from the decision-making process..... All we can do is support good moves. And it is not us who will solve the situation, which is why we are asking the political parties to unite and go forward in getting into a peace process and democratisation....... there is not much happening in bringing in a political process. The conflict is dragging on..... urging them to unite and present a united framework as that is essential for the restoration of democracy. There is a strong need for Nepal's democratic political parties to unite around a joint plan for reviving and revitalising the democratic processes
• Police 'arrest hundreds' in Nepal BBC News, UK more than 500 people across the country demonstrating against King Gyanendra .....the biggest protests since the king declared a state of emergency ..... about 100 people were arrested in the capital ..... Police baton-charged demonstrators .....
  
• Army kills 18 Maoists in Nepal Sify .... in a night-long battle to thwart an assault on a security forces base ... attack on the base by hundreds of rebels .... nine soldiers were injured ..... battle began in the evening on Thursday and lasted for more than 12 hours
• UN urged on Nepal abuses Swissinfo, Switzerland Nicolas Howen, secretary general of the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), said on Friday violence against democracy advocates was intensifying and called on the U.N. to condemn Nepal for violating humanrights and install rights monitors in the country..... crackdown on demonstrators could deepen the cycle of violence ...... a Swiss initiative to condemn Nepal for its abuses. The European Union, the UK and Denmark already support the Swiss plan ....the king seems determined to use the poorly equipped armyto crush the rebels even though defence experts say it faces a protracted guerrilla war
• Nepal Human Rights Crisis Continues Reuters AlertNet Madav Kumar Nepal, like many others, has now been detained for over 50 days with no charge..... On 20 February, in the east of Nepal, two political activists and a local trade union leader were detained, beaten, kicked and threatened that they would be killed by the military after leading a peaceful pro-democracy demonstration....... on March 31, 2005, when military authorities refused the NHRC access to detainees held in military barracks in Kathmandu .....
  
• Rights groups call for continued monitoring of Nepal situation Deepika Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the International Commission of Jurists said the international community should ''stand firm in its response to the human rights crisis in Nepal ...... ''The release of some political prisoners on April 1 must not be mistaken by the international community as an improvement in the human rights situation in Nepal .... Hundreds remain detained and arrests continue...A careful examination of the conduct by the government of Nepal by independent and credible sources in Nepal reveals that the government's record is getting worse, not better.'' ..... the democratic parties, human rights organizations and the media are still intimidated and controlled
• Nepal Human Rights Crisis Continues Human Rights Watch The organisations called on the members of the Commission on Human Rights to approve a resolution urging the establishment of a U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights office with a strong monitoring mandate and the appointment of a Special Rapporteur on human rights to report publicly on the human rights situation in Nepal.
  
• Nepal Police Break Anti-Monarch Protest Guardian, UK The demonstrations were just 100 yards from the military parade grounds where King Gyanendra was watching an equestrian show performed by the army....... police officers on the street said they had orders to use force to break up all protests
• 18 guerrillas killed in mid-western Nepal Xinhua, China Ground and air surveillance is already underway in the region, and the number of casualty on the part of the insurgents could be much higher ..... the first major offensive attempt made by the insurgents since a state of emergency was imposed in Nepal on Feb.1.
• Nepal Will Act Against Anti-Government Protests, Minister Says Bloomberg ``The government is not talking of a clampdown on political activities.... It is prepared to seriously deal with violent agitations.''
  
• Nepali gov't to act tough on violent agitation People's Daily Online "The government is not talking of clamp down on political activities.... In fact, the government does not at all see the possibility any stir." leaders of some major political parties said that they would launch peaceful agitation "in order to bring the king into dialogue."
• Nepal army 'repels rebel attack' BBC News, UK several hundred rebels took part in the attack which is believed to be one of the fiercest in recent weeks
• Anti-King protests rock Nepal, over 250 arrested Press Trust of India, India Over 250 protestors were arrested today as anti-King demonstrations by major political parties rocked Nepal, including the capital which was virtually turned into a fortress with heavy deployment of security forces and riot police....... chanted slogans like "Down with autocratic king", "Restore Democratic Rights" "Long Live Democracy" and "Reinstate Parliament"...... cane-charged the agitators .... One hundred activists were arrested from Pokhara, twenty-five, including Nepali Congress central member and former Minister Rambaran Yadav, were arrested from Dhanusha today ..... In Dhanusha some 3,000 activists demonstrated and police cane-charged them. Fifteen people were arrested from Bardia and 15 from Nawalparasi ..... Dolakha and Tanhu .... from Gaushala and various campuses in Kathmandu .... "The government is not talking of clampdown on political activities. In fact, it (govt) does not at all see the possibility any stir. But it is prepared to seriously deal with violent agitations"
• Nepal army kills 50 Maoists in battle Sify, India ....a night-long battle in western Nepal to repel a largescale attack on a security forces base ..... bodies of 50 rebels in combat dress and 31 automatic weapons have been recovered from the clash site .... "Hectic search operations are going on to locate the rebels who are suspected to be hiding in the neighbouring areas"
• Anti-King protests rock Nepal, over 250 arrested Deccan Herald, India
  
• Nepal Army Kills 50 Rebels; 500 Protesters Arrested Swissinfo, Switzerland many more, possibly hundreds,of Maoists could have died in the fighting ...... rebelsfrequently carry their casualties with them to keep moral up...... an attack five weeks ago in which the army said its forces hadkilled at least 50 rebels in the western Bardiya district...... Around 450 more activists were arrested in pro-democracygatherings elsewhere in Nepal. In the eastern towns of Janakpur, Sarlahi and Mahottari, dozens of activists wereinjured after police used batons to break up protests......
  In Janakpur, where political activists staged protestsagainst the king, a local journalist said he saw at least 45 injured demonstrators at a local hospital...... pro-democracy protesters who appeared suddenly in ones and twos were quickly arrested,bundled into iron-meshed vans by police and driven away......
  
• A quiet panic in Kathmandu ANALYSIS / NEPAL Bangkok Post
  
• Nepal's streets erupt again Times of India, India
  
• UN moved against Nepal Times of India, India Human rights groups on Friday urged the 53 countries in the UN's top human rights body to take firm action against Nepal.
  
• 85 anti-gov't guerrillas killed in Nepal People's Daily Online A total of 12 security personnel have also lost their lives since the state of emergency was imposed on Feb. 1