International Intervention: The Only Way Out

For a country that gets the majority of its annual budget through foreign aid, it is laughable to claim UN or third party mediation to resolve the civil war situation would impinge on its sovereignty. To describe any possible UN intervention as an issue of sovereignty is to not understand the UN as the ultimate international body.

The intransigence is on the part of the king and his coterie. They will put the country through any amount of violence, any amount of economic hardship, any amount of political paralysis so as to preserve their monopoly on power.

One of the reasons given by the king for his taking over has been his fear of "ethnic fragmentation." That might be his term for a possible federalism in Nepal. The guy shuts down the Dalai Lama's office. And uses terms like "ethnic fragmentation." Makes me very suspicious. I guess he is The Ultimate Nepali Speaking High Caste Male. More the reason for the monarchy to be abolished.

The foreign powers need to take stock of the true face of this regime. They have to see the king and the army top brass for who and what they really are. And they have to allow for a transformation of the Nepali Maoists. They have to be given a way out. They should have the option to become a force within a democratic, republican, multi-party framework, as they have said time and again since 2/1. To ignore their change in stance is to ally with the king's language of "ethnic fragmentation," to send signal that what these other parties are offended by is the Dalit-Janajati empowerment theme of the Maoists.

And the Americans really need to get their nose out of the books, out of their readings into Russian communism in the 1930s, Chinese communism in the 1960s, of Peru, of Cambodia, and look at the Nepali Maoists in terms of the Nepali ground realities. They should be given the option to become a peaceful force by the others stopping to sideline their political demands. It would be amazing if the Americans were to preach monarchy to the Maoists. It is Americans who got rid of their King G - G for George - to become what they are today. The same logic applies to Nepal. No taxation without representation. I mean, are the Americans against a Constituent Assembly for Nepal, something for which they have laid down American lives and dollars in Iraq!

It is true the Maoists are a significant presence in hundreds of districts in Nepal and India. But the answer lies in giving a greater say to Human Capital in globalization. I am all for globalization. I think overall it is a great, positive force. It is globalization more than anything else that will bridge the North-South divide. But globalization will have to be modified such that it benefits (1) Physical Capital, (2) Financial Capital, and (3) Human Capital equally. So far, the third one has been shortchanged. I believe the discontent among the poorest on the sub-continent has to be seen in that light. I believe the poor have every right to demand a greater share of the riches, particularly in terms of education and health and micro credit for them so they can at least put their foot up the first ladder of socio-economic upward mobility.

I believe India should take the lead. It should consider trade sanctions, like in 1989. It should consider seizing assets of the king and the army top brass in India. It should ultimately consider doing a US-In-Haiti in Nepal. The Monarchists and the Maoists can not be made to feel like they are the only guns. The democrats should maintain the threat of force, if only to not have to use it, and to neutralize the guns of those other two forces.

Pakistan's threat to supply arms to Nepal should be taken seriously. If the Pakistani regime can act to support autocracy in Nepal, the democratic forces all over the world have a right to undermine the autocracy in Pakistan. Only a democratic Pakistan might be capable of seeking a meaningful peace in the region.

It is high time Condi Rice did a Mubarak on Musharraf. It is great that the US went heavy on Pakistan after its ambassador made a gross remark about supplying arms to the junta. Keep it up.

The international community will have to bring to an end its love affair with the monarchy in Nepal. That is what it boils down to. A monarchy that refuses to stay constitutional is absolute, and it makes no sense to keep offering the constitutional monarchy voodoo. There is no taker, so beat it.

March 14

• Nepal police arrests 500 protestersExpress Newsline, India ..... around 350 protesters were detained in a peaceful protest in the southern town of Janakpur
• India: Asian human rights watchdog slams America for helping Nepal ...Keralanext, India ... slammed America for messing up Nepal's humanitarian crisis by refusing to suspend military aid to the tiny kingdom ..... given wrong signals to an already defiant King ..... "The United States is part of the problem because they see the problem in Nepal as part of the war against terror. They are trying to ignore the ground realities, which prevail in Nepal.
• Human Rights Groups Demand International Intervention in Nepal PolitInfo.com, Germany Asian Center for Human Rights wants the international community to suspend humanitarian aid to Nepal ..... Maoist rebels are solidifying their control outside the capital ..... international interventions in respect of involvement for mediation between the Maoists and the government
• DRC: UN envoy gives militiamen ultimatum to disarmReliefWeb, Switzerland ......gave a two-week ultimatum on Sunday to militiamen in the embattled northeastern district of Ituri to disarm and be integrated into the country's national army ..... According to the National Commission for Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reinsertion, some 3,783 militiamen have already gone through the disarmament and community reinsertion process, intended for the combatants of the various militia groups in the district, estimated to be 15,000, including 6,000 children. .... 3,708 of these combatants had been demobilised and 75 integrated in the army.
• India's menu card for Rice: F-16s and NepalTimes of India, India The fact that India is her first stop in Asia, even before China, has not gone unnoticed here. After the F-16 issue has been sorted out, on top of the agenda will be Nepal. It has been a point of unprecedented cooperation between US and India, which have calibrated their reactions to the Nepal palace coup. The US has told India that it has leaned on Pakistan to desist from stirring trouble in the Nepal hotpot. While this message was gently made until recently, Pakistan ambassador Zamir Akram's comments in Nepal late last week, has prompted a more vigorous US diplomacy with Pakistan. Pakistan government had assured the US of Islamabad's compliance. Akram, it is now being said, was flying solo with his offer to make defence supplies available to the King. "It is unlikely that Pakistan would want to anger the US on this issue," they said.
• Nepal will be a failed state without foreign intervention: report Khaleej Times “An estimated 400,000 Nepalese have been displaced from their villages and millions have fled to India to escape atrocities.” “The international community is not recognising this as a humanitarian crisis because there are no refugee camps there, like in Sudan. There are no actual numbers of the Nepalese migrants, but the figure is believed to be more than 10 million.” .... the United States and Pakistan were complicating the situation further .... accused the army of “acting as a law unto itself”, citing cases of arbitrary arrests and extra judicial executions ..... The ACHR has asked donors to suspend all military assistance to Nepal, impose visa restrictions on ministers and army officers and freeze the assets of the royal family.... It has asked the UN to appoint a special envoy to Nepal to solve the Maoist problem and stop recruiting Nepalese soldiers for peacekeeping operations.
• India is crucial in Nepal's rights battle at GenevaHindustan Times, India Last year, it had bailed Nepal out in Geneva..... It was touch and go for the Himalayan kingdom with Switzerland moving a draft resolution that asked the 53 member countries to vote for moving Nepal from Agenda 19 to Agenda 9. To be on Agenda 19 means the rights record of a country is in a serious situation but can be improved through advisory services and technical cooperation. However, to be put on Agenda 9 means it is subject to systematic violations and beyond rectification, a situation that calls for international monitoring. It will be interesting to see who rescues Nepal this time - maybe Pakistan, China, Russia and Cuba. ..... the draft needs to be approved by the majority of the 53 member countries. ..... India wanted Nepal's support to enter the UN Security Council ...... The royal coup affects India since New Delhi fears an escalation in the Maoist insurgency that will trigger fresh Nepalese migration to India and even Maoist infiltration. India-Nepal joint ventures in Nepal are at an increased risk.
• Nepal's rising vigilante violenceBBC News, UK King Gyanendra's handpicked government admits it has encouraged violence by anti-Maoist vigilantes. ...... civilians have been butchered by the anti-Maoists, with the rebels responding brutally. ..... hundreds of houses in many villages destroyed, and people axed, shot, even burnt to death - people who may or may not have had anything to do with the Maoists. .... the mob raped a 12-year-old girl ...... At the height of the violence, three government ministers came to address a crowd. Home Affairs Minister Dan Bahadur Shahi says he knew they had beaten 12 men to death. Recourse to the courts "is not relevant during a war", he continued. "They gathered, found them and killed them. I thought I should praise them." Thirty-year-old Rikh Bahadur Gaha Magar, his face blank with grief, found his cousin's body. "His brain was oozing from his head. He'd been axed and pierced with a spear, and we think he was cut with a sickle because his hand was broken in two places," he says. "The Maoists used to force ordinary people to attend their programmes. Now in the anti-Maoist violence, the same civilians' houses have been burnt down just because they attended rallies" ...... Major Sunil Gahle .. the government might soon distribute firearms to villagers. Maoist violence and misdirected counter-violence are taking on a frightening life of their own. And the king's government is encouraging the vigilantes.
• Maoist rebels, political parties launch nationwide protests ...ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland Scores of police and security forces, including plain-clothes policemen, patrolled the market and other locations throughout the city ..... Acting President of the Nepali Congress party Gopal Man Shrestha ..... Maoist leader Prachanda issued a notice on the rebel website Sunday calling for "general strikes, a transport blockade and blockade at local and regional level between March 14 and April 1" ..... "We urge all the political parties to create a new basis for re-establishment of democracy by forgetting past differences," Prachanda said Sunday. ..... Maoist rebels have called for a nationwide general strike between April 2 and April 12
• Govt ready for discussion on Nepal developments: LS toldDeccan Herald, India Yogi Adityanath, BJP, warned that Pakistan's decision to supply arms to Nepal and China's strong interests in that country would have an adverse fallout for India..... a coordinated response of the international community to the developments

March 13

• Nepal's Parties Ready for Pro-Democracy Protests MondayVoice of America
• Restore multiparty government or face agitation: sacked Nepal PM: New Kerala The five political parties have announced widespread demonstrations on March 14 against the royal coup.
• Royal coup, Maoist blockades have Nepal economy in tailspinNewindpress, India Nepal's economy is on the verge of complete collapse and the blockade could push it over the edge...... Nepal lost one per cent of its estimated GDP of 400 billion Nepalese rupees during the 15-day Maoist blockade last month....... From Monday, the Maoists have announced a ``thousand-day blockade''. ...... the fast-shrinking Nepalese economy ..... New Delhi's reading is that the King remains defiant even while the economy is spinning out of control and political confrontations seem imminent. It has predicted that things in the Himalayan kingdom will get a lot worse before they get better.
• Nepal Maoist rebels calls for nationwide protests Reuters India Prachanda also asked the guerrillas to step up attacks on security forces to protest the king's move to suspend democracy, end civil liberties and impose strict curbs on the press ...... an 11-day nationwide strike from April 2 ..... Mainstream parties have refused to join the rebels in protests unless the Maoists, who want set up a single-party communist republic, gave up the use of violence.
• Civil liberties to be restored soon in Nepal Indian Express
• Fresh strikes set to hit NepalTimes of India, India ..... 'people's actions' from March 14 to April 1 ...... from April 2 with a 10-day strike across Nepal ...... "From now onwards, we will assist the political parties in their activities, not disrupt it. We guarantee their safety and security in the districts to carry out their activities." ...... none of the parties have reciprocated, citing past anti-party violence by the rebels ..... the Maoists appear to be trying hard to lure the parties
• Top Nepal official in dock over Maoist connexion:New Kerala, India
• Police arrest 21 ahead of pro-democracy agitations in NepalPress Trust of India, India
• Nepal imbroglio onStatesman, India Six-time Prime Minister Mr Surya Bahadur Thapa ... launched the Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP)
• Pak move may alter India's Nepal policyTimes of India, India The decision to revisit the issue now that the king shows no sign of making concessions shows India's dilemma. ..... the UPA government's conviction that the Maoist menace is India's biggest security threat ...... 170 Indian districts were under Naxal influence ..... the outlawed KLO in the North-East was developing links with the Nepalese Maoists and ULFA ..... King Gyanendra might have his way after all. The next meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security will review the issue of military assistance to Nepal in the light of Pakistan's open offer to supply arms to Kathmandu.