Thursday, March 17, 2005

Indo-US-EU Alliance Needs To Do A US-In-Haiti In Nepal


A forging of a Indo-US-EU alliance for democracy might be a "gift" of Nepal's 2/1. Let's face it, ultimately the alliance will have to face China itself. I don't know if it will be 10 or 20 years from now, but that time will come. It will not be more than a generation. And Nepal is no Taiwan. China will not go to war with the Indo-US-EU alliance just because the alliance might end up opting for miltary action. The best thing about publicly putting the military option on the table might be that force might not have to be used. The threat will be enough.

China, Pakistan, Russia, Cuba. When they say 2/1 is Nepal's internal matter, they are not saying they support it. They are definitely not saying they will fight for the junta should the need arise.

Unilateral disarmament is ineffective politics. When the junta keeps its "emergency" in place with threat of force, and you demand that it restore all fundamental rights, but you do not back that demand with possible use of force, then you are disarming unilterally. It will not work.

A junta that has taken away the fundamental rights of the Nepali people is not the representative of the sovereignty of the country.

Step 1: Cut military aid.
Step 2: Cut all aid.
Step 3: Economic sanctions and blockade.
Step 4: Seize all property held by the junta outside the country.
Step 5: Threaten to come in.

Of course, the better option would be for the three powers to fund the Nepali democrats in India and elsewhere to organize in a massive way while also keeping steps 1-5 on the table. How about the three powers pumping in $1 million each to start with? I call this the Ukraine option.

The Ukraine option is my preferred one.
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution .....a series of protests and political events that took place throughout the country ..... the capital city of Ukraine and center of the revolution where a large 24-hour tent city was set up ..... series of nationwide protests, sit-ins, and planned general strikes .....the Orange Revolution reached its successful and peaceful conclusion ..... massive protests began in cities across Ukraine: the major one in Kiev's Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) attracted an estimated 500,000 participants ..... The demonstrations in Kiev were of an unheard-of scale. By many estimates, on some days they drew over 1 million people to the streets, in freezing weather...... though apparently spontaneous, was the result of extensive grassroots campaigning and coalition building among the opposition ...... extensive work by student activists ......
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Sharp .... Sharp's key insight is that power is not monolithic. According to Sharp, as a dictator continues to discredit himself or herself, more and more police officers and soldiers will do things other than follow the dictator's orders, and once a critical mass is reached, will openly disobey. The activists need to have a positive program, he argues.
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonviolent_resistance Gene Sharp has identified 198 methods of nonviolent action which may be used to defend countries from invasion, undermine dictatorships, block coups d'etat or challenge unjust social systems. They include:
  • symbolic protests
  • hunger strike
  • paralysis of transportation
  • social boycotts
  • specific and general strikes
  • civil disobedience
  • economic shutdowns
  • political noncooperation
  • "disappearance" under false identity
  • economic boycotts
  • public demonstrations
  • slow-downs
  • publication of banned newspapers
  • deliberate inefficiencies
  • assistance to persecuted people
  • broadcasts about resistance on radio and television
  • judicial resistance
  • defiance by the government
  • denial of legitimacy to the usurpers
  • non-cooperation of civil servants
  • legislative procrastination and delays
  • declaration of defiance
  • persistent continuation of old policies and laws
  • student defiance
  • children's demonstrations
  • individual and mass resignations
  • refusal of collaboration
  • maintenance of autonomy of independent organizations and institutions
  • subversion of the usurpers' troops, and incitement to them to mutiny
In The News
  • STARK WARNING ON NEPAL Special Broadcasting Service, Australia
  • UN and donors say Nepal is close to humanitarian crisis Channel News Asia .... The joint statement was issued by 11 foreign missions and donor agencies including the Canadian International Development Agency, Danish International Development Agency, Britain's Department for International Development, the UN in Nepal, German Technical Cooperation, USAID/Nepal and the Finnish and Norwegian embassies.
  • Nepal 'near humanitarian abyss' BBC News ....Children are among the worst affected, it says, with many suffering from a lack of vitamins and essential dugs...... Credible reports have emerged in recent weeks that some women died in childbirth because they were unable to reach medical help, the statement adds...... There is also concern for the fate of 100,000 Bhutanese refugees in eastern Nepal, who are dependent on relief but find the flow of aid regularly blocked.
  • Students protest for democracy in Nepal Seattle Post Intelligencer .....detained dozens of students protesting ..... Hundreds of police dragged demonstrators from the main market in Katmandu. .... The protests were organized by 10 different student groups linked to the main political parties. They are urging colleagues to join banned street protests ..... "Our only goal is restoration of full democracy and we will battle to the end. This is the beginning of our decisive battle against the autocratic regime," student leader Gagan Thapa said in a telephone interview..... Police have been hunting down student activists, jailing them and harassing their families .... the government has strictly censored the media and sought to justify strict crackdowns on rallies by citing intelligence that they were being infiltrated by communist rebels ....
  • Protests erupt in Nepal NEWS.com.au "I was told the news report in my paper which said around 750 protesters across the country had been nabbed for holding anti-king protests on Monday, had gone against the spirit and norms of the royal proclamation of February 1," Wagle told reporters.
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